President Trump would lose in Georgia to each of the top-tier 2020 Democrats, according to a new poll, a sobering signal that the 16 Electoral College votes in a usually reliably Republican state may be in play.
According to the survey released by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Wednesday, five Democrats vying for their party’s nomination receive more support from Georgians than Trump. Former Vice President Joe Biden beats the incumbent by eight points, earning 51% of the vote to Trump’s 43%, according to the poll.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would beat Trump 48-44%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 47-44%, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg 46-43%, per the poll. Even California Sen. Kamala Harris, a mid- to lower-tier Democratic primary challenger, would beat Trump 45-44%.
Those numbers seem to be reflective of Trump’s general disapproval in the state, which sits at 54%. Just 44% of Georgians strongly approve or somewhat approve of him.
More broadly, the figures reflect fast-changing demographics in Georgia. Republicans have dominated state politics there for the better part of 20 years, but influxes of immigrants from Asia and Latin America, along with professional-class transplants from northern states, make for a fast-churning electorate about which Democrats are optimistic for making gains in coming election cycles. Whether 2020 is the year remains an open question, and rural whites and conservatives in Atlanta’s suburbs still hold significant sway in statewide elections.
In 2016, Trump beat Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Georgia 50-45%. In 2018, Republican Brian Kemp won the gubernatorial race against Democrat Stacey Abrams by less than 2 percentage points, one of the slimmest margins for a Republican in years.
Not all news in the poll was positive for Democrats. Just 40% of Georgians support “Medicare for all,” the healthcare plan touted by Warren and Sanders that would eliminate virtually all private healthcare coverage.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution surveyed 1,028 registered voters from Oct. 30 to Nov 8. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
