Many Republicans are taking it for granted that they will make big gains in the congressional election in 1998. The president’s party, they like to say, usually loses big in elections in his sixth year. Speaker Newt Gingrich likes to quantify it: The party out of power, he says, has gained an average of 41 House seats in sixth-year elections. But Republicans should not be too quick to count their chickens. Big gains are possible, but they are not automatic — and Republicans might not gain at all.

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