Environmental groups are watching closely to see how and when China plans to meet the strict pollution targets it agreed to with President Obama in November.
China’s plan, expected to be submitted to the United Nations later this month, could become the linchpin for achieving a global agreement on emission reductions at a U.N. climate change conference later this year in Paris. That’s because China is one of the world’s top consumers of fossil fuels and any international plan to reduce emissions will rely on strong commitments from the Asian power.
“By articulating how it plans to achieve these goals, China can help build further support among international stakeholders for a successful agreement in Paris,” the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank, said Monday in a primer on what to look for once the Chinese plan is issued.
One of the most important aspects to look for is how China anticipates placing a “peak” on greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously increasing non-fossil fuel use by 2030 under the U.S.-China agreement. With most nations, including the U.S., already submitting their plans to the U.N., the Chinese plan still remains to be seen.
The plan, called an Intended Nationally Determined Contributions strategy, or INDC, is required to be submitted to the U.N. in time for negotiations in Paris in December. The Paris meeting is meant to hash out a new global framework for reducing emissions, which many scientists say are causing the Earth’s climate to warm.
Nearly 40 countries have submitted their plans.
China laid the foundation for a robust plan when it agreed with the U.S. to “peak” its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. It also agreed to transition away from fossil fuels and move toward receiving 20 percent of its primary energy consumption from non-fossil fuel sources by the same year.
Under the agreement, the U.S. “pledged to reduce its emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, a commitment formalized in the U.S. INDC,” according to the group. “The nations reached this accord bearing in mind that China’s historical and per capita emissions are still much lower than the United States,’ even as its annual emissions have grown.”
The World Resources Institute laid out three areas that should be examined closely once China’s plan is issued. The first component to look for is its “peak-year pledge.” It says that China’s commitment to peak its carbon emissions “was a significant — even historic — milestone” for the country. The peak emissions year would set the highest level at which carbon emissions can be emitted.
Republicans denounced the president’s deal with China, saying it committed the U.S. to reduce emissions in less time than China agreed to.
“The INDC is an opportunity for China to offer further details about this proposal. We will be looking for more information that indicates the level at which China expects to peak its emissions, and under what circumstances it may be possible for emissions to peak earlier than 2030,” the group said.
Second, the international community will be looking for commitments from China to exceed its targets, as well as plans to reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, a short-lived but potent gas.
Chinese methane emissions and greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide “now outstrip the total GHG emissions of countries like Japan and Brazil,” according to the World Resources Institute.
Third, how China plans to meet the goal of increasing non-fossil energy resources should be examined closely. China will have to install 800-1,000 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity, “greater than its current coal-fired capacity and almost the total current capacity of the United States,” to meet the 20-percent goal, according to the group.
Nevertheless, a new study from the London School of Economics says China will meet its peak goal sooner than expected, in 2025 instead of 2030. And many analysts believe its non-fossil goals from its own internal planning are aggressive enough to meet the energy goals with sizable contributions from renewables and nuclear power.
