Ted Cruz is now the clear favorite to win the Iowa caucuses. When you consider that Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich are splitting an “establishment” vote in New Hampshire, it’s not unreasonable to think Cruz could win New Hampshire if Trump fades. When you think through the March 1 Southern primaries, it’s hard to see who would beat Cruz there. In other words, Ted Cruz may be the legitimate favorite to win the GOP nomination.

This is the fruition of the strategy he laid out fairly clearly months ago: in brief, the establishment vote would be divided while Cruz would consolidate the Tea Party vote. Meanwhile, if you’re following the standings in the establishment division, Chris Christie is making a move.