Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-PA) reelection campaign is bracing for an automatic recount in Pennsylvania’s battleground Senate race that on Thursday was called for Republican challenger Dave McCormick.
McCormick led Casey 49%-48.5% with 99% of the ballots counted when it was called by the Associated Press. The gap of roughly 32,000 votes was right on the 0.5-percentage-point threshold that triggers a required recount in the Keystone State.
The Casey campaign projected confidence its deficit would erode once remaining votes were tallied and showed no signs of conceding the closely watched battle that expands the Senate’s Republican majority next year to at least three seats.
“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots,” Casey campaign spokeswoman Maddy McDaniel said in a statement. “This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted.”
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The McCormick campaign and Senate Republicans claimed victory earlier that day before the race was called, equally as confident that their candidate would maintain his slim lead. The campaign says Casey should concede and that it was past time for outlets to call the race.
“While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States senator from Pennsylvania,” McCormick campaign communications director Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement.
Before the Associated Press determined McCormick flipped the seat, his campaign was eyeing Cambria County, a conservative stronghold with only 51% of its ballots tallied, as evidence the race was over. McCormick led the county by about 25 points.
Democrats countered by noting outstanding provisional ballots in past cycles have favored them.
President-elect Donald Trump flipped Pennsylvania with 50.5% to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 48.5%. McCormick was underperforming Trump at 49%, while Casey was matching Harris at 48.5%.
The nail-biter race could still be weeks away from officially being decided by state officials, given provisional ballots and a possible recount. Democrats seethed that it was prematurely called.
“The party that doesn’t like the outcome, they claim it’s voter fraud. The same party doesn’t want to count every vote, and claim a ‘victory’ in our Senate race,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) tweeted. “That party can chill the F out because we are gonna count every last one in PA.”
Recounts rarely change the outcome of elections and are actually more likely to widen the gap between candidates, according to recount analysis by FairVote. One conducted in the 2022 Senate GOP primary between McCormick and Mehmet Oz, who were separated by 0.07%, did not alter the outcome.
With McCormick’s projected win, Republicans will have at least a three-seat majority come January. The current chamber makeup from the election sits at 53-45, with Senate races in Nevada and Arizona also too close to call but leaning in Democrats’ favor.
Democrats led in both states, with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leading Republican Sam Brown by 0.9 points in Nevada with 90% of the ballots. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) was ahead by 2.2 points of Republican Kari Lake in Arizona with 69% of the ballots.
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Although Election Day came and went, the continued counting of ballots and the possibility of recounts or legal action meant the pleas for campaign donations weren’t over. Supporters of Casey, Rosen, and Gallego continued to face donation solicitations, some of which were sent on behalf of the campaign of Maryland Democratic Sen.-elect Angela Alsobrooks.
On the House side, Republicans got good news out of Pennsylvania on Thursday when a trio of tight House races were called all in the GOP’s favor. Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), the former Freedom Caucus chairman, won his race, while Republican Robert Bresnahan unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) and Republican Ryan Mackenzie beat incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA).
