A best of times or worst of times outcome looms for local residents as federal base realignment and closure changes impend, according to speakers at the Greater Baltimore Committee?s conference on Monday.
Economist Anirban Basu and retired Brig. Gen. J. Michael Hayes, director of Maryland?s department of business and economic development, told business leaders that a six-year, BRAC-related, local increase of between 40,000 and 60,000 jobs was the “least unknown” number in the base conversion mix.
Basu also said that related commercial construction will most likely center around Anne Arundel and Harford counties.
The U.S. Army?s Aberdeen Proving Ground and Fort Meade, which are located in Harford and Anne Arundel counties, respectively, will share almost evenly in the projected job increases, Hayes said.
Questioning whether the affected jurisdictions would be able ? or even willing ? to accommodate the BRAC-related commercial development and an estimated 90,000 new residents, Basu feared that most growth would be shunted off into rural Cecil County.
“We could destroy a lot of rural county heritage [that way],” he said, instead making a case for Baltimore as an attractive business and residential haven for the BRAC surge ? if only schools could be improved and property taxes lowered.
Hayes added that construction ? the U.S. Army has budgeted $17.7 billion for BRAC-related construction in fiscal 2008 ? will precede any demographic shift, and that, given historical relocation rates of past closures, up to 65 percent of new, BRAC-related jobs will be available to Marylanders.
And, he said, the construction industry can expect from $6 to $7 billion in local business through 2009.
“Impacted counties are working to identify specific needs, most related to school and infrastructure requirements,” Hayes noted. “And the city of Baltimore is also developing plans to demonstrate to potential employees ? that it presents attractive housing and business location opportunities.”
