California Gov. Gavin Newsom will all but certainly face a recall vote by the end of the summer, but even amid his pandemic faux pas, the candidate pool seemed open enough to save his career. That is, until now. Former Olympic gold medalist, reality television star, and transgender activist Caitlyn Jenner is considering an entrance into the recall race as a Republican, a move that could change the fundamental calculus of an already unorthodox election.
Prior to reports of Jenner’s consideration, the most notable contender in the recall race was Kevin Faulconer, the centrist Republican, former mayor of San Diego. Faulconer was popular enough in the city that when it voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 37 point margin, he beat his Democratic challenger by 38 points. But despite Faulconer’s proven pedigree and socially liberal appeal, he has struggled to break through the deep blue media markets of the Golden State. Jenner, on the other hand, has the ability to dominate the press. Oddly enough, that might work in Faulconer’s favor.
The recall vote is on a single ballot but with two questions that strategically challenge how candidates usually campaign. The first question is whether a voter supports the recall. The second is whom, if the recall succeeds, would the voter support as Newsom’s replacement.
Newsom wants his supporters to turn out but not inadvertently boost the ultimately most viable Republican in the second half of the ballot. Faulconer wants high turnout from California’s more Republican Central Valley and for Democrats to stay home. Jenner would boost turnout regardless, and Republicans could stand to benefit.
Although both Faulconer and Jenner have publicly criticized Trump, Jenner is far more of a cultural lightning rod, not just among the minority of Republicans who endorse discrimination against transgender people but also in Hollywood and among liberals who have long criticized Jenner’s open conservatism. And Jenner’s team reportedly involves star Republican operatives such as former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale and prominent conservative attorney Harmeet Dhillon. If Jenner does decide to jump in this race, it means she’s serious. Turnout will be high, and liberals voting no on the recall could vote against Jenner and for Faulconer, creating a dead heat.
Just about anything could happen in this race. Democratic bigwigs such as billionaire Tom Steyer or former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa could still hop in the race — or, as California reopens, Newsom’s favorable ratings could rise again. But his personal affairs, famously messy, have been attracting whispers again, and one more scandal plaguing the billionaire-bankrolled white guy could whet California’s appetite for a woman who, gasp, is a Republican!
Is it likely? No. But could it happen? Well, the last time California put its governor to a recall vote, it eventually elected a Republican athlete-cum-mega celebrity in the form of Arnold Schwarzenegger.
A Republican, once-Trump-supporting transgender celebrity? It may seem odd that she would be the first woman in the state’s governor’s mansion, but then again, it would also be charmingly Californian.
