Onething’s for sure: Somebody has to pitch next season.
As the 2006 campaign winds to a close, 60 percent of the Nationals’ current starting rotation is staring free agency in the face: Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas and Pedro Astacio. Should all three depart, the Nats may receive compensatory lower round sandwich draft picks — or maybe just sandwiches, depending upon the outcome of a new collective bargaining agreement.
In the absence of adequate replacements for all three, it may behoove management to consider bringing at least one of that trio back for 2007.
Ortiz — in the absence of John Patterson and following the trade of Livan Hernandez — has emerged as the staff ace, if anyone actually deserves the label. He’s the innings leader on the club and his recent no-hit bid showed what he’s capable of. Astacio got a late start this year due to injury and his peak performance was a two-hit, complete game shutout of the Braves in mid-August. It was the Nats’ only complete game of the season. Armas has yet to live up to the potential he showed in Montreal, but still gets the ball every fifth day.
All three pitchers have ERAs over 5.00 — Astacio’s is over 6.00. Still, the sub-4.00 ERA is more and more becoming a thing of the past. Unless there’s no goal of improvement next year — highly doubtful — at least one of these guys should get an encore.
Now, the optimist in me thinks Patterson and Ryan Drese can successfully return to their pre-injury abilities. Mike O’Connor should be penciled in to the ’07 rotation if for no other reason than he’s lefthanded, and, hey, every team needs a junkballing southpaw. Brian Lawrence never got off the ground with the Nats and he’s got a buyout clause in his contract. He’s indicated a desire to return even if they buy him out and his numbers in San Diego would have been a huge help to this year’s effort. Zach Day’s role — if healthy — is yet to be determined; the same can be said for BillyTraber and Jason Bergmann.
Based on age alone, Armas would be the choice to stay, though I doubt that’s going to be a major factor. Still in his 20s, he’ll likely draw some interest as a free agent. Astacio will be 37 in December and I’m guessing the Nats would prefer a younger option, such as Ortiz.
Ramon Ortiz is 33 and gives up too many home runs. He’s averaged almost six innings per start, however, and displays an emotional side I find strangely compelling. He’s not really ace material, but as a third or fourth starter next year might be worthwhile.
I can’t see the Nationals going after a marquee free agent starter like Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt, particularly if they make a serious run at re-signing Alfonso Soriano.
So, barring a meaningful trade for a pitcher or two, a lot of what you’ve seen this year you’ll see in 2007. It’s not a recipe for contention, but I think we all understand that this is a work in progress.
Phil Wood has covered sports in the Washington-Baltimore market for more than 30 years.
