Alabama might have the week off, but that doesn’t mean college football fans do.
For rivalry week, I went 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. After a great record in the regular season, it’s time to pick some conference championship games. Here are the three most important ones, in the Pac-12, Big Ten, and, of course, SEC. Each one has major implications for the College Football Playoff.
Record after week 14: straight up: 32-10, against the spread: 25-16, with one push.
No. 5 Utah (11-1) vs. No. 13 Oregon (10-2): Friday at 8 p.m. EST on ABC
Two great senior quarterbacks will go head-to-head Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California: Utah’s Tyler Huntley and Oregon’s Justin Herbert.
Herbert, who’s listed at 6 feet, 6 inches tall and 237 pounds, was projected as one of last year’s top quarterback prospects, but he decided to stay for his senior year instead of potentially becoming a first-round draft pick. He was expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, but a handful of mediocre performances combined with losses to Auburn and Arizona State changed all that. By many metrics, Herbert has had a successful year. He has thrown for 3,140 yards and 31 touchdowns against just five interceptions while completing 67.5% of his passes. He should still be one of the first quarterbacks taken in next year’s NFL draft.
Huntley missed last year’s championship game after getting injured in early November. He has flown under the radar as one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. He has thrown for 2,773 yards and 16 touchdowns with just two picks while completing 75.5% of his passes. He has also run for another five scores. Huntley is fifth nationally in passing efficiency behind Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. That’s an insane shortlist to be on.
Utah’s offense goes primarily through running back Zack Moss. Moss, like Huntley, also went down with an injury last November and missed last year’s title game. He has also had a phenomenal year. Moss has 1,246 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He also has over 300 yards receiving and is averaging over 14 yards per catch out of the backfield. The Utes have the country’s 23rd-best rushing offense and are averaging nearly 215 yards per game on the ground. Oregon has the nation’s 10th-best rushing defense, so we’re about to see strength versus strength.
Huntley hasn’t thrown more than 30 times in a game this season and has completed at least 77.8% of his passes in each of his last four games. In fact, he completed over 82% of his throws in Utah’s last two outings.
Herbert’s inconsistent November has been a microcosm of his whole season. He had great performances in wins against USC and Arizona but then followed it up with a so-so performance in a loss to Arizona State and then a poor game in a close win against Oregon State. Throwing for 174 yards and a touchdown and completing just 60% of his passes like he did against the Beavers is probably not going to get it done against the Utes.
Utah is third in the country in total defense, allowing just 241.6 yards per game and 16 touchdowns on the entire year. It also has the nation’s 3rd-best scoring defense, the 14th-best pass defense and the 10th-best red zone defense. The Utes are ninth in the country when it comes to converting on third downs and 10th when it comes to preventing teams from converting on third downs. They are going to be tough as nails to beat. Meanwhile, the Ducks aren’t too shabby on the defensive side of the ball, either. They have the country’s 10th-best scoring defense.
My X-factor for the game will be Utah’s offensive line against Oregon’s front seven. Will the Utes be able to get the push upfront that they need for Moss to find some holes and Huntley to have enough time to try and pick the Oregon defense apart?
On the other side, can Utah throw Herbert off his rhythm? The Utes have been vulnerable to the run at times. Can CJ Verdell put his poor November performances behind him and give the Ducks some spark in the run game?
The spread: Utah (-6.0)
My pick: Utah’s defense is solid. The defense and the pain of last year’s absurdly close loss to Washington will propel the Utes to the Pac-12 title. I’m taking Utah to win and cover the spread.
No. 4 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (12-0): Saturday at 4 p.m. EST on CBS
We get another matchup of outstanding quarterbacks in Atlanta for the SEC Championship with LSU’s Joe Burrow and Georgia’s Jake Fromm.
Burrow, the Heisman front-runner, will now play in the biggest game of his life, but he’ll have a little pressure taken off because LSU is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers’s resume is outstanding. Win or lose, they’re probably in. For Georgia, it’s a must-win game.
Burrow has been sublime this season and will, barring a miracle, be named the Heisman Trophy winner. He has thrown for 4,366 yards with 44 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 78.3% of his passes. If you look at his numbers against AP Top 25 teams, he threw for almost 1,500 yards with 11 touchdowns and just two picks while completing 79.9% of his passes. Burrow brings it when he’s playing against the best teams.
Georgia’s offense is built around their awesome run game, unlike LSU’s, which is built around its spread passing attack. Fromm has thrown for 2,385 yards this season with 21 touchdowns and just three picks while completing 62% of his passes. If you look at games against top 25 teams, Fromm has thrown seven touchdowns and no picks. In Georgia’s road games, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and no picks. He does a great job of taking care of the ball.
Georgia’s D’Andre Swift had a shoulder injury against Georgia Tech, but head coach Kirby Smart said he is hopeful that Swift will be able to play. Swift has run for 1,200 yards this season with seven touchdowns and an average of 6.2 yards per carry.
The reason that I expect Georgia to stay in this game is its run game and its fantastic defense. Georgia is ranked fourth nationally in total defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 257 yards per game. They’ve allowed 12 offensive touchdowns and just 14 total touchdowns all year.
Georgia has the nation’s 2nd-best scoring defense, the 15th-best pass defense, allowing just 186 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt, the 6th-best third-down defense, and the 3rd-best red zone defense. The Bulldogs are also ranked fourth nationally in net punting. Field position could be a huge factor in the game.
LSU, I should note, has the nation’s second-best scoring offense, the second-best total offense, and the second-best passing offense. That leads me to my X-factor for this game.
My X-factor is Joe Burrow against Georgia’s secondary. If the Bulldogs can line up in and successfully maintain man coverage against LSU’s spread passing attack, they can blitz more often and try to be aggressive and put pressure on Burrow. If Burrow burns the Bulldogs over the top and beats them for big plays, Georgia will need to come up with a new game plan.
The spread: LSU (-7.5)
The pick: The Bulldogs’s defense and run game will give them an opportunity to win, but I’ve seen Georgia in too many big games under Mark Richt and Kirby Smart to think that this is the moment where the Bulldogs will finally shine. Georgia plays too conservatively on offense too often, and you can’t do that in big games against the best teams. I’m taking LSU to win, but I think it’ll be a very close game. Grab the points.
No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (10-2): Saturday at 8 p.m. EST on FOX
We get a rematch in the Big Ten Championship between the Badgers and Buckeyes. Ohio State blasted Wisconsin in late October, 38-7, when the Badgers went to Columbus. It’ll be a neutral site this time around at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
If you look back at that blowout loss for Wisconsin, it was 0-0 heading to the second quarter, and the Badgers only trailed 10-0 at the half. However, they fell behind by 17 entering the fourth quarter and went on to lose by 31.
This is still a big mismatch on paper, and not just because of the spanking that Ohio State put on Wisconsin earlier in the year. Ohio State is the No. 1 ranked team in the country for a reason. The Buckeyes have the nation’s top scoring offense, averaging 49.9 points per game, and the fourth-best scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 11.8 points per game. They’re fifth in total offense and first in total defense.
Before we go any further, though, let’s take time to appreciate a couple of players: Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor is the best running back in the country and is already one of the greatest running backs in the history of college football. He joined Herschel Walker as the only players to rush for over 1,700 yards in each of their first three seasons. He has 1,761 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He also averages over nine yards per catch and has five receiving touchdowns. No FBS player in the country has more total touchdowns than Taylor’s 25. He has a year of eligibility left, but I think he’ll opt for the NFL Draft after the season.
On the other sideline, Justin Fields, who should be a Heisman finalist, transferred from Georgia after last season and has put up monster numbers for the Buckeyes. Fields has thrown for 2,654 yards and 31 touchdowns against an incredible one interception. He also has 10 rushing touchdowns and is completing 68.2% of his passes. He has been injured a couple of times this season and actually had to briefly leave last week’s game against Michigan because of an injury. He put on a bigger brace than the one he was previously wearing, returned to the game, and immediately threw a touchdown pass. He has been a sensational performer and story this season.
J.K. Dobbins has been nothing short of a monster when it comes to how he has performed against top teams this year. He racked up 163 rushing yards and two touchdowns while averaging 8.2 yards per carry in the win against Wisconsin earlier this season. He put up 157 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns while carrying the rock 36 times in Ohio State’s critical win against Penn State. Finally, he lit up the Wolverines for 211 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 31 carries in last week’s blowout win against Michigan. If the Badgers can’t stop Dobbins, they’re going to be in big trouble.
My X-factor in this game is Wisconsin’s offensive line against Ohio State’s front seven. Chase Young, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and potential Heisman finalist, had four sacks and five tackles for loss in the win earlier this year. Wisconsin can’t let him have that kind of impact again. Taylor had 20 carries for 52 yards and averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. Wisconsin must do better if it wants to win.
Wisconsin’s offensive line must not only open up running lanes for Taylor, it has to give Jack Coan time to go through his progressions and find the holes in the Ohio State defense. The Badgers didn’t do a good job of that in Columbus. If they don’t want to lose in a similar fashion, it starts with the offensive line. Sustaining long drives and wearing down Ohio State’s defense will obviously help Wisconsin put points on the board, but it will also help keep Ohio State’s offense off the field and allow Wisconsin’s defense to rest.
The spread: Ohio State (-16.5)
My pick: While I don’t think we’ll see the Buckeyes win by 31 again, I do think they’ll win comfortably. I’m taking Ohio State to win and cover.
College Football Playoff predictions:
- LSU: I believe LSU will finish the regular season as the undefeated and undisputed SEC champion. I think the Tigers get the committee’s top slot in the playoff.
- Ohio State: The undefeated Buckeyes, who I believe will beat Wisconsin and win the Big Ten, could easily take the top spot in the rankings. Even if LSU wins, too, the committee may feel justified in putting Ohio State at No. 1 because of its strong resume.
- Clemson: Clemson’s schedule wasn’t the toughest of the playoff teams, but the reigning champs are peaking at the right time. The ACC championship game isn’t listed here, but Clemson (favored by 28.5 points) should easily dispatch Virginia.
- Utah: Assuming Georgia loses to LSU and the Utes beat Oregon, as I predicted above, I think the committee will push Utah into the fourth spot ahead of the Big 12 champion (Baylor or Oklahoma).
Outside looking in:
Oklahoma: The Kansas State loss and Oklahoma’s unimpressive wins leading into the Big 12 title game didn’t impress the committee. Even if the Sooners win the Big 12 and have just one loss, they’ll probably be outside the bubble unless they absolutely demolish Baylor and Utah squeaks by or loses to Oregon.
Georgia: That loss to South Carolina was a killer and left the Bulldogs no margin for error. A loss, even a close loss, to LSU would still knock them out of the playoff.
Alabama: Did you know that Alabama doesn’t have a win against a Top 25 team this season? The Iron Bowl loss knocked the Crimson Tide out of the playoff for the first time since it was created in 2014.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
