No evidence Ohio vaccine lottery increased vaccination rates, study finds

Despite Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine touting the state’s $5 million vaccine lottery as a “success” in promoting higher vaccination rates, a recent study found no evidence the initiative contributed to an upward trend in inoculations.

The Vax-A-Million incentive program started in May and has already awarded vaccinated applicants lucky enough to have their names pulled from the list of eligible candidates. Ohioans ages 12 to 17 who received one or more doses had the chance to win one of five scholarship awards, and anyone over 18 with the same qualifications is eligible for one of five $1 million prizes.

Researchers at Boston University’s School of Medicine compared vaccination rates in Ohio with several states that had no lottery incentive. The study found that vaccine rates increased following the state’s lottery announcements but attributed the spike to different causes, saying the uptick was due to the expansion of the Pfizer vaccine to children ages 12 to 15.

“The study did not find evidence that a lottery-based incentive in Ohio was associated with increased rates of adult COVID-19 vaccinations,” the research team wrote in its findings. “In contrast, the analyses suggest that the rate of decline in vaccinations slowed to a greater extent in the US than in Ohio after the May 12 lottery announcement.”

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The governor’s office disputed the methods of the study to WJW, a local Fox affiliate. “Governor DeWine saw the study and recognized immediately what the error is. The study is flawed because it is focused on 12 to 15 year olds,” said Dan Tierney, spokesman for DeWine.

Tierney told the outlet that the state had removed 12- to 15-year-olds from the equation when compiling records for the campaign.

“The first week after Vax-a-million, we saw a 44% increase in Ohioans 16 and older getting the vaccine. According to the Washington Post, no other state saw an increase along those lines. We saw a 17% increase in those 16 and older in the second week,” Tierney said.

The governor’s spokesman argued the benefit to the lottery program outweighed other vaccine incentive and publicity alternatives. Tierney said the amount of media coverage the lottery generated would have otherwise cost the state $50 million in airtime for public service announcements.

So far, 41.75% of Ohio’s population has been vaccinated, with nearly 4.8 million people receiving full doses, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

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More states and localities have started similar initiatives for COVID-19 vaccines to combat the emerging delta variant and an overall decrease in vaccinations across the country.

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