On Friday, to mark the second anniversary of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul Consulate, the Biden campaign released a statement promising to hold Saudi Arabia to account: “Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will reassess our relationship with the Kingdom, end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil,” it declared.
Khashoggi’s murder was stupid and odious, but Joe Biden’s progressive virtue-signaling would undercut every interest Biden hopes to promote: U.S. national security and human rights first among them.
The root of America’s current relationship with Saudi Arabia dates back to the tail end of World War II. On his way back from the Yalta conference, President Franklin Roosevelt met Saudi King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud aboard the USS Quincy in Egypt’s Great Bitter Lake, one of the saltwater lakes which dots the Suez Canal route. World War II was the first major war fought with oil, and Roosevelt recognized the strategic imperative of having an oil reserve within the American orbit should the United States be drawn into any future war.
Over subsequent decades of the Cold War, Saudi Arabia stood side by side with the U.S. in almost every major crisis, and every U.S. president, regardless of party, developed warm relationships with the Saudi monarch. President Dwight Eisenhower created the interstate highway system and changed our culture forever: Suburbs took off, car ownership became part of the broader culture, and the economy boomed. All of these changes were oil-dependent. This does not mean there were not tensions between allies: The Arab-Israeli conflict chafed at the relationship and ultimately led to the 1973 oil embargo. While Washington resented what many perceived to be Saudi attempts at blackmail, Riyadh had its own grievances in what Saudis perceived as racist incitement.
For Americans, the fact that 15 of the 19 hijackers involved in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks were Saudi citizens highlighted the problems of an alliance with a country that had for decades used its oil wealth to fund extremism. White House and congressional efforts to keep secret the full extent of the complicity of some Saudi diplomats in the attacks increased suspicion and did the relationship no favors. For decades, the Saudis lavished funds on former diplomats, lobbyists, and consultants who would slander any who did not affirm the Saudi line. Saudi elite behavior also brewed resentment.
The problem with Biden’s proposed policy, however, is its ignorance of both the value of the Saudi alliance and the reality of Saudi decision-making. If Biden talks to any intelligence professional or diplomat, he will hear two truths about Saudi Arabia. First, while Saudi authorities may not have taken the fight against al Qaeda and extremism seriously until 2003 or 2004 when the kingdom began facing blowback for its support, Saudi authorities and intelligence officials are now on the forefront of fighting extremism and provide intelligence that regularly saves American lives. Frankly, it is not Saudi Arabia but rather Turkey, Qatar, and Iran that have become the world’s greatest exporters of radicalism, hate, and incitement.
Second, Saudi Arabia may be an American ally, but it is not a puppet. Saudi Arabia is in Yemen not because the Obama or Trump administrations wanted them to be, but rather because the Saudi leadership made a calculation based on their own assessment of national interest as well as historic phobias. In 1934, Yemen invaded Saudi Arabia, a move which proved disastrous for Yemen as it lost what is now Asir, Jizan, and Najran. When I lived in Yemen in 1995, there were sporadic skirmishes with Saudi Arabia as the two countries sparred over border demarcation. Khaled bin Sultan, the Saudi hero of Operation Desert Storm, launched a Saudi offensive into Yemen in 2009 after Yemeni Houthis seized Saudi territory. Two years before he became crown prince, Muhammad Bin Salman, then just defense minister, launched a new war on Yemeni Houthis after Houthi commander Ali al Shami bragged that Houthi forces would drive to Riyadh. For the Biden administration to cut off intelligence-sharing with Riyadh would not be to end the war, but rather to make Saudi targeting of the Houthis less accurate. Biden and his advisers should realize: Saudis have agency, and the U.S. is not a colonial power that controls its allies’ every move.
Perhaps, however, Biden and crew would cut off weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. The problem here is that Saudi Arabia is not the only combatant in the conflict. The Houthis have repeatedly launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi industrial, military, and civilian infrastructure. Likewise, while policymakers can debate the extent to which Houthi actions in Yemen were indigenous in origin, that Iranian forces have largely co-opted the movement is readily admitted by officials in Tehran and is not under dispute. To abandon Saudi Arabia, therefore, will not end the war; it will only give Houthi and Iranian aggressors an upper hand.
A broader issue for Biden’s progressive supporters is Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record. They are right in this. While Bin Salman has pursued many reforms, there should be no illusions: A reformed absolute monarchy is a reformed absolute monarchy, not a democracy. To undermine Bin Salman might not only be to empower reactionary domestic rivals, but Biden’s advisers fall victim to the common progressive logical fallacy: On one hand, they promote multilateralism, while on the other, they pretend it does not exist when they want to browbeat allies. While Washington would be right to pressure Riyadh to improve its human rights record, to push so hard as to force Riyadh to embrace Moscow or Beijing would be to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Just as progressives may applaud the end of a 75-year partnership, reactionaries in Saudi Arabia and many in Russia and China would too. Should Biden push the Saudi monarchy into either China or Russia’s orbit, human rights would neither improve nor would diplomats and congressmen have any of the leverage they do now with Saudi Arabia as an ally.
What Biden and his aides may not realize is how differently many Saudi elites, both those in favor of the crown prince’s agenda and those opposed, frame Khashoggi’s murder. What is described in the U.S. as nothing more than a gratuitous assault on press freedom is often discussed in Saudi circles as the outcome of a dispute between Saudi intelligence officials and a former agent. This by no means excuses Khashoggi’s murder. Bin Salman should, at the very least, be persona non grata in Washington, but the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia should be about more than one man.
If Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris forget that in their pursuit of virtue-signaling, the end result will be to no one’s benefit in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or the U.S.
Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
