The Congressional Budget Office released an analysis of the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act in early June. The report found that, compared to current law, the legislation would decrease tax revenues by $3.6 trillion, decrease spending by $1.2 trillion, and thus increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years. The report also found that the legislation would increase the number of people without health insurance by more than 9 million.

One does not need to cast partisan aspersions at the CBO to undermine its credibility when estimating the costs and consequences of congressional policy. One only needs to look at its record to notice a pattern. When it comes to projections, the CBO is often wrong by a significant margin.