College students aren’t the most consistent or dependable voters, experts warn, but they drive absentee voting in some states, WESA Pittsburgh reported.
“What you might expect in an election year like this, where on the Democratic side (there’s) lots of excitement surrounding Bernie Sanders, that you will see higher than normal levels of absentee ballots being cast by young voters who might be out of state at colleges,” Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College, told WESA.
Those young voters might not get noticed in polls, but they can buoy a candidate to over-perform.
Hillary Clinton is polling ahead in Pennsylvania by an average of 16 points, but as Borick acknowledged, Sanders has the support among young people.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is polling ahead by an average of 18 points. “The primary season this year is actually relevant on both the Democratic and Republican sides,” Borick said, speaking about another possible reason for a rise in absentee ballots. When voters think a race is close, or has stronger real-world effects, they’re more encouraged to get involved.
Allegheny County has already received about 10,000 applications, which is more than 2012 figures and “higher than … your typical presidential primary,” according to Mark Wolosik, Manager of Allegheny County’s Elections Division. Wolosik does not expect to see numbers similar to 2008, however.
Voter turnout across the country increased overall by 5 million in 2008, with significant turnout increases among young people compared to 2004, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In states which held their May 15 primaries, youth voter turnout broke 2008 records. Participation increased for young Republicans in all states, though it decreased in some states for young Democrats. In Nevada, Democratic turnout was down 33 percent from 2008, another suggestion that turnout this year might not rival previous figures.
Both Rock the Vote and Youth Service America mention absentee voting as options for voting and Get Out the Vote efforts. It will remain to be seen if Pennsylvania reflects a larger trend for increased absentee ballot voting. In 2008 in 2012, domestic absentee ballots accounted for 16.6 percent of ballots cast, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
