CONGRESSMAN RICHARD BURR is “the perfect candidate,” says Sen. George Allen of Virginia, in what may be a perfect year for a Republican to run for the Senate in North Carolina. He’s a former defensive back for Wake Forest University. He has a conservative voting record, but a moderate image. He’s energetic, likable, and anything but strident. Burr knows more about health care than practically any member of Congress–a valuable quality in an era when Medicare reform and prescription drug benefits are perennial issues. He has the enthusiastic support of the Bush White House. Bush adviser Karl Rove not only encouraged Burr to run, he spoke at a fundraiser in Winston-Salem last April that raised $680,000 for Burr’s campaign. History is on Burr’s side. Republicans have won seven of the last nine Senate races in North Carolina. And the only two Democrats to win–John Edwards in 1998 and Terry Sanford in 1986–succeeded in nonpresidential years. Bush will be on the ballot in 2004, and he’s quite popular in North Carolina. In 2000, he carried the state by 13 points. Last year, Bush aided Elizabeth Dole in her 9-point victory for the Senate over Democrat Erskine Bowles, once chief of staff at the Clinton White House. Bowles is Burr’s likely opponent next year.
A Burr victory, picking up the Democratic seat Edwards is vacating, would be a critical part of a Republican success story in gaining Senate seats in 2004. Which depends on several things, two of which are probable (I think): an improved economy that numerous indicators now point to and a safer, more stable Iraq. A third factor, a liberal Democratic presidential nominee like Howard Dean, could cinch the deal for Republicans. Such a candidate would fare poorly in three open Democratic seats in the South (North and South Carolina and Georgia) and the two that might become open (Louisiana and Florida). Dean, who’s been dubbed “McGovern on steroids,” could drag down Democratic candidates in conservative states.
That’s the Republican dream scenario, at any rate. But dreams, expectations, even empirically grounded predictions are often not realized in politics. A scenario that seems obvious and unassailable can implode. Democrats suffered exactly that in 2002. They thought the weak economy would doom Republican candidates for the House and Senate. And they figured they’d inoculated themselves by passing an Iraq war resolution. But no. Homeland security turned out to be pivotal. Bush and Republicans hammered away at the issue and won seats in the first midterm election, the one that’s supposed to go badly for a new president’s party.
So what could go wrong for Republicans? Lots of things. Maybe the situation in Iraq and/or the economy will sour. Jobs are an enormous problem in North Carolina. The textile industry has collapsed, furniture manufacturing is declining, and technology and banking jobs are beginning to dry up, if not leaving the state. A strong economy nationally may not halt the job drain in North Carolina. “Jobs is something I talk about frequently,” Burr says.
No doubt Bowles will dwell on that issue and blame Bush and Burr. Bowles is one of the Democrats’ best non-incumbent candidates. He lost to Dole in 2002, but the race was a dead heat until it broke open in the final days. In Burr, he faces an opponent without Dole’s star power. Bowles has money–he spent $6.5 million of personal wealth against Dole–and excellent name recognition. He’s generally perceived as a moderate. Now if he were a moderate Republican, Bowles would be unbeatable. In any case, Burr is no more than a narrow favorite at this point, largely because North Carolina has been trending Republican.
For Republicans in the South, the last-minute injection of presidential support–what Burr calls the “Georgia model”–will probably be missing in 2004. Bush barnstormed through Georgia and North Carolina on the eve of the 2002 election, galvanizing Republicans and stirring them to vote. But next year Bush is all but certain to take Southern states (except Florida) for granted and concentrate his campaign time on battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. So Burr will have to defeat Bowles on his own.
The fondest Republican hope is that two more Democratic senators retire: John Breaux of Louisiana and Bob Graham of Florida. Absent Breaux, a reasonable Republican candidate would be favored in Louisiana. Without Graham, the odds would be roughly 50-50 on a Republican pickup. But Republicans may lose a shoo-in incumbent, Don Nickles of Oklahoma, who is yet to announce his intentions. Also, a Democratic breakthrough in Oklahoma, with a Senate candidate such as moderate congressman Brad Carson, is conceivable.
A Republican sweep would include victories in South Carolina, where Democratic senator Fritz Hollings is retiring, and Georgia, where Democrat Zell Miller is quitting after less than one term. Congressman Johnny Isakson is the strongest Republican in Georgia and should be able to beat Democrat Andy Young, who’s been the mayor of Atlanta, a member of the House, and the ambassador to the United Nations. In South Carolina, an ugly Democratic primary fight between school superintendent Inez Tennenbaum and Columbia mayor Bob Coble will make a Republican victory even more probable than it already is. The likely Republican candidate is congressman Jim DeMint.
North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida–that’s five potential Republican pickups. But there’s a catch. Brad Woodhouse of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee points out that Republicans had trouble recruiting candidates. In Illinois, with an open seat because Republican senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring, the White House urged former (but still popular) governor Jim Edgar to run. He almost said yes, then declined, and now the seat will probably go to a Democrat. In Washington, Republican congresswoman Jennifer Dunn rejected pleas to challenge Democratic senator Patty Murray. Republican congressman George Nethercutt has stepped in, but he’s from eastern Washington and most of the state’s voters are in the west.
In South Dakota, ex-congressman John Thune has not decided whether to take on Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle. If he chooses not to, Daschle is safe. In Nevada, Republican congressman Jim Gibbons is passing up a contest against Democratic senator Harry Reid. In Arkansas, both governor Mike Huckabee and Drug Enforcement Administration head Asa Hutchinson would have been strong Republican challengers of Democratic senator Blanche Lincoln. Both declined. In North Dakota, Republican former governor Ed Schaeffer said no to a race against Democratic senator Byron Dorgan.
Then there’s Alaska. Gov. Frank Murkowski, a Republican, named his daughter Lisa to replace him in the Senate. This did not go down well with other Republicans, much less Democrats. She’s proved to be a capable enough senator, but she’s a pro-choice moderate in a conservative state. She may have a serious primary challenge. Worse, the only Democrat with a chance of beating her, ex-governor Tony Knowles, is running. He’s no powerhouse, but neither is she.
So here’s how it adds up. Republicans have a shot of netting up to five Senate seats. The makeup of the Senate today is 51-49 Republican, counting Vermont’s Jim Jeffords, supposedly an independent, as a Democrat. The best guess now is that Republicans gain four Senate seats in the South, lose Illinois and perhaps Alaska. That’s based on the emergence of a good economy, a better Iraq, and the reelection of Bush. Democrats, by the way, would be ecstatic if they hold Republicans to the current 51-49 edge.
The Burr race in North Carolina is central to Republican success. GOP leaders and the White House helped clear the field for Burr. And he has the advantage of support across the board from Republicans. In fact, former senator Jesse Helms, the conservative icon, has offered to stump for Burr. Helms uses a wheelchair these days, but he told Burr, “I’ll let you push me wherever you want to.”
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
