Viruses mutate constantly, and the coronavirus is no exception. In recent months, new variants of the coronavirus have appeared that may not only be more infectious than the original strain, but also more resistant to vaccines and more deadly.
Below is a list of the variants that have been identified and how infectious, deadly, and vaccine-resistant they may be.
United Kingdom: The U.K. variant, also known as B.1.1.7, was first identified in the U.K. in September 2020. By December, it threatened to overwhelm hospitals and prompted Prime Minister Boris Johnson to order a lockdown. Thus far, nearly 3,300 cases have been discovered in 49 states in the U.S. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that the U.K. variant will be the dominant strain in the United States by the end of March.
Research from Imperial College London suggested that it may be 40% to 70% more transmissible than previous strains of the virus. A more recent study found that it was 35% to 45% more transmissible and that cases of the U.K. strain are doubling at a rate of about every eight days in the U.S.
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“The overall picture is one of something like a 40% to 60% increase in hospitalization risk and risk of death,” Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist and adviser to the British government, said recently based on a study from the U.K. government. Although that looks alarming, most people who contract the virus do not die or end up in the hospital.
Thus far, most vaccines are about as effective against the U.K. strain as they are against the original strain.
South Africa: Also known as B.1.351, this strain emerged in October, and, by late January, it had swept through South Africa. In late January, scientists in South Africa estimated that the variant is 50% more infectious than previous strains. Thus far, no research has found it to be more deadly.
This variant does not seem to be spreading as quickly in the U.S. as the U.K. variant. The CDC has identified only 91 cases in 21 states. That may be due to the fact that the South Africa strain’s ability to bind to enzymes is threefold stronger than the original coronavirus, while the U.K. strain is ninefold stronger, according to recent research from the Netherlands.
Research has confirmed that the South African strain has a mutation that makes it more resistant to vaccines. But the degree of that resistance has been a matter of controversy. A South African study found that the AstraZeneca vaccine was only 10% effective against the strain, although that study was criticized for focusing only on younger people and having a relatively small sample. The Novavax vaccine has an efficacy of 49% in South Africa versus 90% in the U.K., while the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had an efficacy of 57% in South Africa versus 72% in the U.S. Recent research from Pfizer showed that it is 95% effective.
Brazil: This variant was first detected in Japan in January among four people who had recently returned from Brazil. Dubbed P.1, it may have emerged in November and is now widespread in Brazil. It has been particularly hard on the Amazonian city of Manaus, causing a second wave of infections even though 75% of the city’s inhabitants were infected with the coronavirus earlier in 2020.
Research from Imperial College in London suggested that the Brazil variant is 1.4 to 2.2 times more transmissible than other variants. It also found that the variant reinfected 25% to 61% of people who had been previously infected with another strain.
The variant does contain a mutation that may make it resistant to vaccines. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine had 61% efficacy in Brazil, while its efficacy was 72% in the U.S. News reports said a study by Oxford University has found that the AstraZeneca vaccine is effective against the Brazil strain, although the actual efficacy rate has not yet been released. The Pfizer vaccine is also effective against the Brazil strain, although not as effective as it is against the U.K. and South Africa strains.
California: The California variant comes in two forms, B.1.427 and B.1.429. It was first detected in blood samples taken in November and has become the predominant strain in the Golden State. A paper from January said that by December, the variant was present in 24% of samples taken in Southern California.
Researchers led by Dr. Charles Chiu at the University of California, San Francisco have found in laboratory tests that the California variant is 40% more effective at infecting human cells than other variants of the virus. The researchers also found that people infected with the variant carry nearly twice as much virus in their nose as people infected with earlier strains. They estimate that cases caused by the variant double about every 18 days. People have a 35% chance of getting infected with the California variant if they are in a household with another infected person. That drops to 26% if the infected person has a different variant.
Chiu’s research also suggested that the California strain may be more deadly. However, his research only looked at a small number of deaths.
The strain may also be more resistant to vaccines. Chiu’s team found that the California variants were two times more resistant to antibodies produced by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
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New York: The New York variant, B.1.526, was first detected in New York City in November. It’s not clear yet if it is more transmissible, but a recent study by researchers at CalTech found the variant in over 25% of samples tested in February. Nor is it clear whether it is more deadly or resistant to vaccines. Yet it does contain a mutation that makes the coronavirus more able to elude vaccines. A team of scientists at Columbia found a 12% rise in virus samples from New York City with that mutation by mid-February.
