Everybody seems to think the Doha round of world trade talks is in serious jeopardy following President Bush’s decision to move Rob Portman from the Office of the Trade Representative to the Office of Management and Budget.
The Washington Post described how it sent “a gloomy signal,” and a New York Times editorial suggested that the most likely result will be the “torpedoing of any real progress” on international trade.
But rather than imperiling the World Trade Organization, Portman’s departure — and the arrival of Susan Schwab, the USTR Deputy nominated as his successor — may give the WTO exactly the spark it needs.
First of all, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that the WTO is on the verge of an earth-shattering global trade deal. Negotiations have limped along for months with virtually no progress. We remain far from anything resembling a final agreement. It’s still not too late to hope for success, but the time for despair is rapidly approaching.
The WTO’s challenges are significant: The U.S. is demanding more from the European Union, the EU is demanding more from the U.S., and the nations of the developing world (especially Brazil and India) are complaining about everybody, but refusing to open their own markets in meaningful ways.
What’s more, the international economy is humming — countries are exchanging goods at growing rates, even in the absence of a new trade regime. Last year, trade between Europe and Latin America expanded by 13 percent. Although there’s billions to be gained from a successful Doha round, it’s easy to see why some countries think they’re doing just fine without it.
But does anybody really think that Portman, for all of his talents, represented the difference between success and failure for the Doha round? Bush clearly didn’t think so, or he almost certainly would have kept the former Ohio congressman in his job as USTR.
Schwab’s media critics always begin by saying nice things about her: She’s a competent technocrat who understands the intricate rules of global trade. Then they claim that she doesn’t have enough clout with Bush and that foreign leaders don’t know her well.
But was Charlene Barshefsky any different when President Clinton named her to lead the trade office? Like Schwab, she was the deputy trade representative. She did not have any special access to the White House or any special relationship with Congress. Yet the New York Times assured its readers that she “commanded respect internationally” — citing as evidence the accomplishments she achieved as head of USTR.
Doesn’t Schwab, who testified before the Senate Finance Committee earlier this week, now deserve the same chance to command respect and deliver her own accomplishments?
Perhaps she will now be the cause of a great success, albeit in a completely unexpected way. Her confirmation could call attention to the unique position and promising role of WTO director-general Pascal Lamy.
The problem with the Doha round has little to do with American personnel. The problem has involved a lack of boldness on the part of all nations, including our own. What we need right now is a genuine breakthrough that energizes all sides. Lamy may be the only man who can deliver it.
A number of years ago, a Lamy predecessor, the late Arthur Dunkel, found himself in a similar position as he faced a group of nations that had announced their devotion to free trade but remained intransigent on the details. So Dunkel pursued what he called the “nuclear option” and authored his own draft agreement.
It was considered undiplomatic. It was called provocative. It was roundly condemned. Yet it was exactly what the world needed — and it led directly to the successful conclusion of the Uruguay round of trade talks.
Lamy’s job isn’t to schedule meetings for trade ministers and hope for the best. His duty is to lead the entire world toward free trade. He doesn’t represent the special interests of one country or region, but the common good of all. And so he should think about resorting to his own nuclear option, perhaps by the end of June.
He will have to brace himself for the inevitable criticism. But that will be a small price to pay if it buys ultimate success.
Dean Kleckner, an Iowa farmer and former president of the American Farm Bureau, chairs Truth About Trade and Technology. Mr. Kleckner was the only farmer to serve on the U.S. Advisory team during the GATT Uruguay Round.
