‘HE’S ENTITLED TO HIS VIEWS’: Responding to a blockbuster interview in the Financial Times, in which the Pentagon’s former software chief said the United States has already lost the race to develop dominant artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities to China, the Pentagon insists the fight is not over.
“He’s entitled to his views, of course,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby when questioned about the interview with Nicolas Chaillan, who told the FT he resigned in protest over the slow pace of technological transformation in the U.S. military.
“We still remain focused on advancing AI capabilities in a responsible way, in close partnership with industry and academia and building a digitally talented and capable workforce here for the department,” Kirby said, adding that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been “very clear about our concerns about China’s desires to advance in this field.”
“This is something that the secretary has spoken — that the entire leadership here at the department has focused on,” Kirby said. “We know there’s a lot of work to do, but we’re committed to doing that work.”
US CYBER DEFENSES AT ‘KINDERGARTEN LEVEL’: Chaillan, 37, who served as the first chief software officer for the Air Force, said the failure of the U.S. to adequately respond to Chinese advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and cyber capabilities was “putting his children’s future at risk” and that cyber defenses in some government departments were at “kindergarten level.”
“We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion,” Chaillan said, adding that there was “good reason to be angry.”
Chaillan placed part of the blame on Google, which has been reluctant to work with the Pentagon on artificial intelligence, as well as the extensive debate in the U.S. over the ethics of systems that can think for themselves.
China, he says, has no such reservations, and Chinese companies have no choice but to work with the government.
‘OUR VULNERABILITY IS EXTRAORDINARY’: In his new book, Risk, A User’s Guide, former U.S. Joint Special Operations Commander retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal argues that the U.S. is totally unprepared for a cyberattack that could cripple the basic requirements of daily life.
“If you turn off the electricity for 48 hours, we would see a tribal-like response of the kind we’ve only seen in zombie apocalypse movies,” McChrystal writes in one chapter.
“I think our vulnerability is extraordinary, if we talk about flashing red lights, because everything’s connected,” McChrystal said on CNN yesterday. “Recently, I bought a new refrigerator, and it’s on Wi-Fi. Now, I never send emails to my refrigerator, so I don’t know why it’s on Wi-Fi. But the point is everything is connected now, and much of it is weak.”
“We need to pressure test American society for this, and we need to do it in a big way, and we need to do it soon,” he argued. “If our electricity goes off, our cellphone services goes out, or power can’t be delivered, society is going to seize up.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets today with his counterparts from Israel and the United Arab Emirates, first individually and then in a trilateral forum to celebrate the first anniversary of the Abraham Accords, a signature diplomatic achievement of the Trump administration.
“We’ll launch two trilateral working groups featuring the U.S., Israel, and the UAE, one on religious coexistence, the other on water and energy issues,” senior State Department officials told reporters yesterday. “This reflects our belief that the Abraham Accords and normalization agreements writ large can help to achieve a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East.”
In the meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Blinken will “reaffirm the rock-solid relationship” between the U.S. and Israel and “underline the U.S. enduring support for Israeli security, including the Biden administration’s commitment to Iron Dome replenishment.”
The meeting with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan will give Blinken an opportunity to thank the UAE for hosting Americans, Afghans, and other individuals in transit from Afghanistan over the past several months. “ Simply put, the UAE support for this effort is critical to our operations, and we remain deeply grateful for their humanitarian efforts and compassion,” an official said.
GRAHAM: ‘WHAT I SAW … IS ANOTHER 9/11 IN THE MAKING’: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, just back from a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in Yuma, Arizona, says the lack of vetting of migrants illegally crossing the border is increasing the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the U.S.
“What I saw that bothers me the most is another 9/11 in the making,” Graham said last night on Fox. “There are 80 countries that they pick people up from. There are two terrorists from Yemen they caught just a few weeks ago.”
“How easy would it be for an al Qaeda or ISIS cell to leave out Afghanistan and come through the southern border to blend in,” Graham told Fox’s Sean Hannity. “The Border Patrol is doing the best they can, but they told me that the likelihood of a terrorist attack coming from our southern border grows by the day.”
BORDER LEFT ‘WIDE OPEN’ AFTER RED STATES PULL NATIONAL GUARD AND POLICE
‘INTO THE ABYSS’: The Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program is out with a new report, “U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022: Peering into the Abyss — The Budget and Strategy Overview.”
The report, written by Mark Cancian, concludes that for “strategic and budgetary reasons, force structure is staring into the abyss.”
Cancian notes that the size of the active-duty force will decline slightly this fiscal year, down 4,600 troops to 1.346 million, but the future size of the force is “undetermined pending publication of national security documents at the end of the year.”
“The best course would be to implement a high-low mix (high-capability forces for great power conflict, lower-capability forces for regional conflicts and other operations), increase reliance on reserve forces, and promote a gradual transition toward new technologies as they prove themselves,” Cancian writes, but notes, “The public will be the ultimate arbiter. Polling indicates public support for a force of about the current size.”
TRUMP: ‘WE WANT OUR EQUIPMENT BACK’: At his rally in Des Moines, Iowa, over the weekend, former President Donald Trump floated the idea of making any aid to Afghanistan contingent of the Taliban returning U.S. military equipment they captured during the takeover of the country last month.
“We shouldn’t be giving them $10 billion. And if we do give them $10 billion, we demand every ounce of equipment back. And we want our hostages back immediately,” Trump told the crowd. “Then we can start talking about doing what we could do. I wouldn’t mind doing it … We want our equipment back, and then we can start talking about that.”
“That equipment is brand new, right out of a box, including the night goggles, which are better than the goggles we have. They’re later models,” Trump said, according to a published transcript. “And including all of the rifles, machine guns, and guns, they’re the latest model, the latest and the greatest. So our enemy of many years has all of that.”
HONDO JOINS BENS: Former U.S. Navy acquisitions chief James “Hondo” Geurts has joined Business Executives for National Security as a “distinguished fellow,” the group announced yesterday. Geurts recently retired after performing the duties of the undersecretary of the Navy.
“As the first BENS Distinguished Fellow, Geurts will provide strategic oversight for the organization’s work over the next year related to the nation’s future industrial base,” the group said in a press release.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: More than 10,000 active-duty airmen have a week to get vaccinated
Washington Examiner: Biden selects former ambassador to oversee Afghan resettlement efforts
Washington Examiner: FBI says Taliban takeover in Afghanistan inspiring Americans virtually
Washington Examiner: Volunteers empty their retirement funds to save at-risk Afghans
Washington Examiner: ‘Fantasy land’: International aid to Afghanistan will enrich the Haqqani Network, House Republican argues
Washington Examiner: Marine who blasted military leaders over Afghanistan withdrawal expected to plead guilty
Washington Examiner: Husband and wife would-be nuclear spy pair in US Marshals custody after first court appearance
Washington Post: Accused spy couple make first court appearance, ordered to stay in jail for now
AP: Boeing tells workers they must get COVID-19 vaccine
CNN: Pentagon Unsure If Hundreds Of Thousands Of Civilian Employees Are Vaccinated As Deadline Approaches
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Wants Up to 400 Advanced Fighter Trainers Like T-7s
Navy Times: Navy recovers remains of five sailors killed in August helicopter crash
Marine Corps Times: Here’s Where The Marine Corps Is Headed As It Shifts Away From Afghanistan And The ‘Old Wars’
USNI News: Pentagon Denies Chinese Accusation Of Cover-Up In Nuclear Attack Submarine Crash
Stars and Stripes: Russia Says It Launched And Intercepted 10 Missiles During Drills Near Japan
19fortyfive.com: The Navy Just Traded In Their Beretta M9 Handguns for Sig Sauer M18s
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy’s New SSN(X) Attack Submarine: An ‘Apex Predator’?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Then & Now: Defensive systems
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Can Joe Biden Legally Defend Taiwan From a Chinese Attack?
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: North Korea’s Missile Exhibition: What Should America Think?
Forbes: Opinion: U.S. Defense Strategy Needs To Pay More Attention To Russia’s Rising Threat In Europe
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 13
8 a.m. — 2021 Association of the U.S. Army Annual Meeting and Exposition at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington. https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2021/index.cfm
Full event schedule here: https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2021/program.cfm
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Iraq’s post-election scenarios,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Jennifer Gavito; Rend Al-Rahim, co-founder and president of the Iraq Foundation; Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; Abbas Kadhim, director of the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative; and Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Security Initiative. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/iraqs-post-election-scenarios
10 a.m. — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on “Domestic Violent Extremist Groups and the Recruitment of Veterans,” with retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Joe Plenzler; Jeremy Butler, CEO of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America; Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Transnational Threats Project; Cynthia Miller-Idriss, director of American University’s Polarization and Extremism Research & Innovation Lab; Sam Jackson, assistant professor in the University of Albany’s College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity; Amy Cooter, senior lecturer in sociology at Vanderbilt University; Oren Segal, vice president for the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism; and Heidi Beirich, co-founder and chief strategy officer at the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism. http://veterans.house.gov
Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvI8xjyh45-XAJbfPcjUdbQ
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “21st Century Warfare,” James Taiclet, chairman, president and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation. https://www.csis.org/events/21st-century-warfare-conversation-jim-taiclet
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “The future of U.S.-Pakistan relations,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olson, senior adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace and former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan; Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy; and Madiha Afzal, foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Unpacking Iraq’s Parliamentary Elections: Significance, Outcomes, and Implications,” with Zeidon Alkinani, teaching assistant in politics and international relations at the University of Aberdeen; Maria Fantappie, special adviser for the Middle East and North Africa region at the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue; Abbas Kadhim, director of the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative; Nussaibah Younis, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual discussion: “Our Indo-Pacific Partnership,” with former Australian Minister of Defense Linda Reynolds; and former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, fellow at the McCain Institute. https://www.mccaininstitute.org/events/conversations
12 p.m. — American University virtual discussion: “Convene, Communicate, Collaborate: Hail to the Chiefs of Staff,” with former White House chiefs of staff former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, chief of staff to President Obama; and Josh Bolten, chief of staff to President Bush. https://american.swoogo.com/ChiefsOfStaff
12:30 p.m. — Axios virtual discussion: “The Future of Cyber Defense,” with Brandon Wales, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, and co-founder and former CTO of Crowdstrike; Kent Walker, senior vice president of global affairs at Google; Ina Fried, Axios chief technology correspondent; Margaret Harding McGill, Axios tech policy reporter; and Jim VandeHei, Axios co-founder and CEO. https://axiosthefutureofcyberdefense.splashthat.com
4 p.m. — Center for a New American Security event: What’s Next for Afghanistan?” with Afghan Ambassador to the U.S. Adela Raz; Naheed Farid, former member of the Afghan Parliament; Task Force Pineapple Deputy Director Lyla Kohistany; CNAS Senior Fellow Lisa Curtis, and moderator Heather Nauert, senior fellow, Hudson Institute. https://www.cnas.org/events/afghanistan-roundtable
5 p.m. — American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security virtual discussion: “Challenges Facing the Intelligence Community,” with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. https://americanbar.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 14
8 a.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual seventh annual Intel Summit on “current priorities and programs for intelligence agencies and new initiatives for the future, with Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2021-7th-annual-intel-summit
9 a.m. 137 Waterfront Street, National Harbor, Maryland. — Defense Strategies Institute 21st Biannual DoD/VA and GOV Health IT Summit, with the theme “Advancing a Single, Modernized Health IT System for Military and Government,” with Former VA Secretary Jim Peake, senior vice president of CGI Federal; Army Col. Joseph Hoffert, chief of the Defense Health Agency Solution Delivery Division; and Joseph Ronzio, deputy chief health technology officer at the Veterans Health Administration; Gil Alterovitz, artificial intelligence director at the Veterans Affairs Department; and Kevin Fu, acting director of medical device cybersecurity at the FDA Center for Devices and Radiological Health. https://iehrsummit.dsigroup.org/
4 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Securing Cyberspace,” with former Homeland Security Undersecretary Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser for homeland security and director of the Defending Democratic Institutions project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 15
9 a.m. — The Middle East Institute virtual Middle East Futures Forum panel discussion on “Cybersecurity and Cyber War.” https://www.mei.edu/events/middle-east-futures-forum
1 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion, “Global Perspectives: UK-Russia Relations,” with Andrew Monaghan, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute London; and Matthew Rojansky, director of the WWC Kennan Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “From Princeton to Iran’s Evin Prison,” with Xiyue Wang, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Ph.D. candidate at Princeton University; and Josh Block, adjunct fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/2026-virtual-even
MONDAY | OCTOBER 18
2 p.m. — Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center Zoom event: “Maximizing Military Power through Minimizing Bureaucratic Barriers,” with retired Marine Gen. James Jones and retired Marine Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro; moderated by Missy Ryan, Washington Post staff writer and Pentagon correspondent. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/maximizing-military-power
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 19
10 a.m. — Defense One and NextGov Network Modernization Summit with Rep. Adam Smith, chairman, House Armed Services Committee; Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner, co-founder, WestExec Advisors, Center for a New American Security; and Michael Spirtas, associate director, senior political scientist; International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation. https://events.defenseone.com/network-modernization-summit
12 p.m. — George Mason Univeristy National Security Institute event: “The National Security Implications of Antitrust: America’s Adversaries,” with Maureen Ohlhausen, section chair of antitrust and competition law, Baker Botts L.L.P.; Matt Perault, professor, University of North Carolina’s School of Information and Library Science; Alex Petros, policy counsel, Public Knowledge; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/the-national-security-implications
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If you turn off the electricity for 48 hours, we would see a tribal-like response of the kind we’ve only seen in zombie apocalypse movies.”
Retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, from his book, Risk, A User’s Guide, in which he argues that the U.S. is totally unprepared for a cyberattack.
