Biden and Putin spar in public, jockey in private

“Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to his neighbors? This is a flagrant violation of international law, and it demands a firm response from the international community,” Biden said, while still holding out hope that an all-out invasion can be avoided.

“We still believe that Russia is poised to go much further in launching a massive military attack against Ukraine. Hope I am wrong about that,” Biden said. Nevertheless, there’s still time to avert the worst-case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions … The United States and our allies and partners remain open to diplomacy if it is serious.”

‘FLAGRANT VIOLATION’: BIDEN BLASTS PUTIN, PROMISES TOUGH ACTION OVER UKRAINE

PUTIN: ‘OPEN TO A DIRECT AND HONEST DIALOGUE’: In a recorded video address marking today’s “Defender of the Fatherland Day,” Putin indicated that he has not closed the door on diplomacy, while insisting he would not compromise Russia’s national security.

“Our country is always open to a direct and honest dialogue and ready to search for diplomatic solutions to the most complicated issues. But I want to repeat that Russia’s interests and the security of our people are an indisputable priority,” said the official Kremlin translation of his remarks.

Yesterday, in a session with reporters, Putin declared the 2015 Minsk II agreement “dead,” and he laid out three conditions to resolve the current crisis.

“We are categorically opposed to Ukraine joining NATO because this poses a threat to us,” Putin said, calling the demand “our sharpest dispute with Washington.”

“The best decision would be for our colleagues in the Western countries not to lose face, so to say, and for Kyiv itself to refuse to join NATO,” Putin said. “In effect, in so doing, they would translate the idea of neutrality into life.”

Putin also wants Ukraine to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and engage in unspecified “demilitarization.”

PUTIN’S ARGUMENT FOR DOMINATING UKRAINE FORESHADOWS AGGRESSION AGAINST NATO

KULEBA: ‘SANCTIONS BY WAVES … CAN WORK’: At the State Department yesterday, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba admitted he was confused by the initial announcement by the White House of sanctions prohibiting business in Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions recognized by Putin as “independent.”

But Kuleba said the Biden strategy can work, so long as every Russian escalation is met with harsher sanctions.

“This strategy of imposing sanctions by waves, if I may put it this way, is something that can work if it continues in a very sustained — in a sustainable way,” Kuleba said in a joint appearance with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “President Putin should not have a single minute when he starts to think that this is the threshold, this is the ceiling,” he said. “This pressure should continue to be stepped up, and if that involves regular issuance of executive orders on new sanctions, we will be more than happy to see that.”

GERMANY STOPS NORD STREAM 2 CERTIFICATION FOLLOWING RUSSIA’S UKRAINE ESCALATION

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HAPPENING TODAY: U.S. troops and attack aircraft are on the move, under orders from Biden to redeploy from U.S. bases in Europe closer to NATO’s eastern flank.

“These forces — comprised of aviation elements and ground forces — will move within the EUCOM Area of Operations to NATO’s northeastern and southeastern flanks in coming days and are expected to be in place later this week,” a senior defense official said, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Kuleba at the Pentagon.

“I … commend you for Ukraine’s measured response, and for continuing your nation’s call for a peaceful diplomatic solution, in the face of Russia’s aggression, provocations, and false accusations,” Austin told Kuleba. “We will continue to work closely with you and remain in lockstep with our allies and partners in trying to find a way to avoid further conflict. Mr. Putin can still avoid a full-blown, tragic war of choice.”

‘THESE MOVES ARE TEMPORARY’: The Pentagon said the movement of forces is “temporary in nature” and part of the more than 90,000 U.S. troops already in Europe on rotational and permanent orders.

They include:

• An infantry battalion task force of approximately 800 soldiers, from Italy to the Baltics
• Eight F-35 strike fighters from Germany to several locations along NATO’s eastern flank
• Twenty AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from Germany to the Baltics
• Twelve AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from Greece to Poland.

“These additional personnel are being repositioned to reassure our NATO allies, deter any potential aggression against NATO member states, and train with host-nation forces,” the Pentagon said. “They will report to Gen. Tod Wolters, commander, U.S. European Command.

BIDEN ORDERS TROOPS TO BALTIC REGION FOLLOWING RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE

PUTIN’S NUCLEAR CANARD: Twice this week, first in his rambling Monday address to his nation and again yesterday in his Kremlin press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of secretly harboring ambition to become a nuclear weapons state and hold Moscow at risk with its arsenal of aging Soviet-era ballistic missiles.

“Ukraine intends to create its own nuclear weapons, and this is not just bragging,” Putin said Monday. “Ukraine has the nuclear technologies created back in the Soviet times and delivery vehicles for such weapons, including aircraft, as well as the Soviet-designed Tochka-U precision tactical missiles with a range of over 100 kilometers.”

Yesterday, Putin continued the accusation, noting that Ukraine already has nuclear power units and a well-developed nuclear industry. “They have dedicated schools, there is everything there to solve this issue much faster than in those countries which are solving matters from scratch,” he said. “They only lack one thing — uranium enrichment systems. But this is a matter of technology, it is not unsolvable for Ukraine, it can be remedied quite easily.”

At Monday’s emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield listed the accusation as one of Putin’s many “false claims” aimed at creating “a pretext for war.”

“He claimed that Ukraine is seeking nuclear weapons from the West. This is not true,” said Thomas-Greenfield. “Ukraine is, in fact, one of only four countries to have voluntarily surrendered their nuclear weapons. The United States and our allies have no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Ukraine, and Ukraine doesn’t want them.”

At the State Department, Kuleba noted that under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine traded away the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal of inherited Soviet weapons in return for security guarantees from Russia that Putin is now ignoring.

“We did a lot to strengthen global security by abandoning our nuclear arsenal,” Kuleba said. “It was a huge contribution. And we expect, on the principle of reciprocity, an equally huge contribution to ensuring Ukraine’s security.”

IN 1994, THE US SUCCEEDED IN CONVINCING UKRAINE TO GIVE UP ITS NUKES BUT FAILED TO SECURE ITS FUTURE

WHAT NEXT? Two Washington think tanks have updated their predictions of Putin’s likely next moves.

The Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project have issued a joint assessment predicting, “Russia will likely commence military operations to seize additional territory in eastern Ukraine within the coming days,” noting Putin has “set information conditions for a military operation against Ukraine at a moment of his choosing.”

While there have been various sightings of Russian troops and tanks in breakaway Donbas regions, the analysis notes that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is not confirming the presence of Russian forces there.

In his press conference yesterday, Putin insisted, “I did not say our troops would enter right away.”

AUSTIN APPROVES GUARD TROOPS IN THE EVENT OF TRUCKER RALLIES: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has approved two separate requests for National Guard troops to assist in traffic control in the event that Ottawa-style trucker protests cause gridlock in Washington, D.C.

Austin, last night, approved the request from the U.S. Capitol Police for 300 Guard troops and from the D.C. Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency for 400 troops.

“Guard members will not carry firearms or take part in law enforcement or domestic-surveillance activities. Neither approval allows for the use of helicopters or other aircraft by the National Guard or the sharing of equipment with law enforcement agencies,” according to a Pentagon statement.

In response to the request from the local District of Columbia government, 50 large tactical vehicles will be placed at “designated traffic posts” starting on Saturday and continuing on a 24-hour basis through Monday, March 7.

CAPITOL POLICE REQUEST NATIONAL GUARD ASSISTANCE AHEAD OF POSSIBLE CONVOY PROTEST

STOP THE SHOT MANDATES: A group of 42 GOP House members has written Austin demanding that the Pentagon halt efforts to involuntarily discharge members of the military over the DOD’s vaccine mandate.

“We are gravely concerned that the military services are proceeding with involuntary discharges when it is unclear to us whether uniform procedures have been issued by the Department of Defense,” says the letter signed by Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn and 41 fellow Republicans. The lawmakers cite a provision in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act that requires the Pentagon to establish procedures under which service members may be exempted from the vaccine mandate, including a review of natural immunity.

“Despite this language, the Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Air Force have all discharged service members over the vaccine, and on February 2, 2022, the Army announced it will immediately begin separating soldiers,” the GOP lawmakers write. “We believe that no one should be involuntarily discharged until the uniform procedures have been established by the Department of Defense, including an in-depth review of the scientific literature regarding natural immunity.”

JUDGE PERMITS UNVACCINATED MARINE AND SAILOR TO CONTINUE SERVING

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden orders troops to Baltic region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Germany stops Nord Stream 2 certification following Russia’s Ukraine escalation

Washington Examiner: Putin’s argument for dominating Ukraine foreshadows aggression against NATO

Washington Examiner: Ukraine asks US to revive FDR’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ program as Russia invades

Washington Examiner: Judge permits unvaccinated Marine and sailor to continue serving

Washington Examiner: Capitol Police request National Guard assistance ahead of possible convoy protest

Washington Examiner: Four dead in military-contracted helicopter crash at Hawaii Navy facility

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden starts slow with US sanctions but rightly reinforces Estonia

AP: Europe braces for further strife as Ukraine crisis escalates

New York Times: Gradually, Theatrically, Kremlin Puts In Place Its Rationale For Invasion

AP: Impending Iran nuclear deal alarms Israel

Reuters: Iran Appears Ready To Swap Prisoners With U.S.; Nuclear Deal Near

USNI News: Russian Navy Cruisers Positioned To Counter U.S., French And Italian Carrier Groups In The Mediterranean

Air Force Magazine: Past NATO Commander: US Can Deter Russia in Ukraine By Taking These 3 Steps

Air Force Magazine: Strategy & Policy: The Russian Way of War

Breaking Defense: A Prototype Spy Plane is Tracking Russian Force Movements for the US Army

Air Force Times: B-52s Complete Bomber Task Force Mission With Czech Fighter Jets

Washington Post: Poll: Broad Support For Nuclear Armament In S. Korea

AP: Israel Successfully Tests Naval Version Of Iron Dome

Defense News: Emergency Funding Proposal for Ukraine Gets Bipartisan Backing in Congress

CNN: Biden Announces New Investments In Mineral Production To Address Supply Chain Shortages

Stars and Stripes: Military Housing Residents In Hawaii File First Claims Over Navy’s Tainted Water

Navy Times: Navy Creates Separate PRT Plank Standards For Men, Women

19fortyfive.com: Joe Biden’s Next Economic Nightmare: An Oil Price Shock?

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why Can’t NATO Admit Ukraine Has No Chance of Joining?

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: The Ukraine Cyber Crisis: We Should Prepare but not Panic

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Putin Moves on Ukraine. How Will the World Respond?

Forbes: Opinion: Joe Biden’s Outdated Views On Missile Defense Are A Poor Match For Putin’s Resurgent Russia

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 23

8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Strengthening the transatlantic response to Russian aggression,” U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski; Polish Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Marcin Przydacz; Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs; Wojciech Kononczuk, deputy director of the Center for Eastern Studies; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/strengthening-the-transatlantic-response

8:15 a.m. — National Security Space Association Defense and Intelligence Space Conference with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security Ronald Moultrie https://www.nssaspace.org

9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Adapting NATO to an Age of Technological Innovation,” with Joanna van der Merwe, defense fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis’ Defense Tech Initiative; Raluca Csernatoni, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; Nikolas Ott, manager at the Microsoft Cybersecurity and Digital Diplomacy Project; Philip Lockwood, deputy head of innovation at the NATO Headquarters Emerging Security Challenges Division; and Bruno Lete, senior fellow for security and defense at GMFUS https://www.gmfus.org/event/adapting-nato-age-technological-innovation

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Next for the China-Russia Relationship?” with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program; Michael McFaul, director of Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies; Evan Medeiros, fellow in U.S.-China studies at Georgetown University; and Angela Stent, director emerita of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies https://www.csis.org/events/whats-next-china-russia-relationship

2 p.m. — Jewish Democratic Council of America virtual briefing: “The Crisis in Ukraine,” with Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J. https://tinyurl.com/2jmd9ken

3 p.m. — National Security Institute at George Mason University event “The Department of Justice’s Role in Combating Nation State Threats,” with Matt Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security; and John Lipsey, director of policy at the National Security Institute and assistant professor of law at George Mason https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/the-department-of-justices-role

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 24

9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “The Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Turkey’s Balancing Act,” Galip Dalay, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs; Maryna Vorotnyuk, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute; Liana Fix, fellow at GMFUS; and Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives at GMFUS https://www.gmfus.org/event/russia-ukraine-crisis-and-turkeys-balancing-act

10 a.m. Orlando, Florida — American Conservative Union Conservative Political Action Conference https://cpac.conservative.org

1 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual workshop” “Enabling the Joint Warfight: Joint All Domain Command and Control,” with Michael Zatman, principal director for fully networked command, control and communications in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Richard Stapp, corporate vice president and CTO of Northrop Grumman; and former Deputy Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment Alan Shaffer, visiting fellow at the NDIA Emerging Technologies Institute, participate in a discussion https://www.ndia.org/events

2 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Global Challenges and the Army’s Role,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/global-challenges

2 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Understanding Russia’s Grand Strategy,” with Andrew Monaghan, director of the Russia Research Network. https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/anding-Russia-s-Grand-Strategy

3 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine” with British Ambassador to the United States Karen Pierce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Next for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham; Nilofar Sakhi, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center; and Mark Bowden, associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/whats-next-un-assistance-mission-afghanistan

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 25

8:15 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual forum: “Doing Business with the Army,” with Matthew Paul, project manager at the Distributed Common Ground System-Army; Gayna Malcom-Packnett, interim associate director of small business programs at the Army Futures Command; and Wayne Sok, product lead at Army Chess https://events.washingtontechnology.com/army

9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Turkey’s Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis,” with Turkish Ambassador to the United States Murat Mercan https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/conversation

11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual discussion: “From Cyber Attack to Nuclear War: Avoiding Escalation through Cooperation,” former State Department Coordinator for Cyber Issues Christopher Painter, president of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise Foundation https://www.nti.org/events/christopher-painter