OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.
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The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.
Here are the state-by-state results of the June survey in the Mid-America region:
Arkansas: The overall economic index for Arkansas advanced to a healthy 59.7 from May’s 59.4. Components of the index were new orders at 36.3, production or sales at 73.7, delivery lead time at 52.7, inventories at 54, and employment at 82.1. “Arkansas’ 2012 job growth has significantly exceeded that for the same period in 2011. As in past months, nondurable goods producers in the state are lagging their durable goods counterparts in terms of business activity and job growth,” Goss said.
Iowa: For the 30th straight month, Iowa’s overall index remained above growth neutral at a very healthy 68. That’s up from May’s 67.1.Components of the index for June were new orders at 73.7, production or sales at 47, delivery lead time at 57, employment at 76.9, and inventories at 64. “Iowa’s job additions for 2012 are more than double that for the same period in 2011. Both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers in Iowa are benefiting from exports and healthy expansions in farm income. Despite higher input prices, Iowa’s food producers are experiencing solid growth in jobs and economic activity,” Goss said.
Kansas: The state’s overall index expanded to a weak 51.7 from 50.8 in May. Components of the index were new orders at 63.6, production or sales at 47, delivery lead time at 54, employment at 45, and inventories at 48. “Kansas’ job gains for 2012 are roughly equal to that for the same period in 2011. No other state in the nine-state region depends more heavily on exports than Kansas. Exports have been an important contributor to the solid expansions we have been tracking in both durable and nondurable goods sectors. Trade weakness will show up in the Kansas economy in the second half of 2012 with weaker but positive economic growth,” Goss said.
Minnesota: The overall index was above growth neutral for the 34th consecutive month in June. But that index slipped to 58.6 from 60.2 in May. Components of the index were new orders at 58.6, production or sales at 54.9, delivery lead time at 60.9, inventories at 53.6, and employment at 65.1. “While 2012 job gains have been healthy, they are down slightly from the same period in 2011. Exports from the state’s large durable goods sector have been a big plus for 2012 growth. On the other hand, the state’s nondurable goods sector has experienced much softer 2012 business activity and exports are likely to contribute little to second half 2012 growth,” Goss said.
Missouri: The overall June index was unchanged from May’s 59.1. Components of the index were new orders at 62, production or sales at 61.2, delivery lead time at 53.2, inventories at 58.4, and employment at 60.8. “Missouri’s job additions for 2012 are almost quadruple that for the same period in 2011. Exports of durable goods manufacturers and expansions among companies tied to agriculture have been important contributors to 2012 growth. I expect both factors to wane in the months ahead with slower growth for the state for the remainder of 2012,” Goss said.
Nebraska: The state’s overall index remained above growth neutral 50 for the 20th consecutive month and advanced slightly to 54.5 from 53.6 in May. Components of the index were new orders at 52.2, production or sales at 57, delivery lead time at 54.6, inventories at 54.1, and employment at 54.7. “Nebraska’s job additions for 2012 are almost five times that for the same period in 2011. Exports of durable goods manufacturers and expansions among companies tied to agriculture have been important contributors to 2012 growth. Survey results point to positive but weaker growth for the rest of 2012 as exports slow and farm income retreats a bit,” Goss said.
North Dakota: The overall index for North Dakota declined slightly to a very healthy 63 in June from May’s 63.5. Components of the overall index were new orders at 67.4, production or sales at 64.7, delivery lead time at 47, employment at 68.5, and inventories at 67.3. “Job growth in North Dakota has been consistently strong for 2010, 2011 and now 2012.Even so, 2012 growth is well above the same period for 2011. Durable goods firms tied to exports, agriculture and energy have experienced expanding business activity. A pullback in exports and slower agriculture growth will both push North Dakota growth lower for the rest of 2012.Nonetheless, it will remain healthy,” Goss said.
Oklahoma: The Oklahoma economic index declined to 56.8 from May’s 58.7. Components of the index were new orders at 61.1, production or sales at 54.1, delivery lead time at 60.9, inventories at 51, and employment at 57.1. “Oklahoma’s job additions for 2012 are more than double that for the same period in 2011. Durable goods manufacturers in Oklahoma are benefiting from exports and healthy expansions in recent growth in energy income. Growth for the rest of 2012 will be positive but down from the first half of 2012 as exports weaken and energy gains soften,” Goss said.
South Dakota: The overall index for South Dakota declined to 52.1 in June from May’s much stronger 62.4 reading. Components of the index were new orders at 45.7, production or sales at 51.4, delivery lead time at 49.4, inventories at 58.8, and employment at 55.1. “While 2012 job growth has been positive for South Dakota, it is down from the same period in 2011. Very healthy manufacturing economic activity has been offset by pullbacks in the state’s financial sector. Likewise higher fuel prices have weakened the tourism sector,” Goss said.
