President Trump is still in the hunt for Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes, despite the coronavirus pandemic.
Joe Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, has the support of 47% of likely Arizona voters compared with the White House incumbent’s 45.3%, according to a HighGround Public Affairs poll released Tuesday.
Though in front, the two-term vice president’s lead is still within the survey’s margin of error. An additional 4.3% and 3.5% of respondents would cast a ballot for another candidate or were undecided.
Trump received tough marks for his handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, with 38.5% giving him a failing grade. He’s also trailing Biden in Maricopa County, the state’s most populous region, which includes Phoenix, 39.6% to 51.8%.
But the president makes up lost ground with rural and older Arizona voters. He has a 2-1 advantage on Biden among those who live outside the state’s urban centers, 62.3% to 28.6%, and is 8 percentage points ahead of Biden with voters aged 50 years and older, 50% to 42%.
No Democrat has won Arizona since President Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection victory.
HighGround’s Paul Bentz said it was an accomplishment for Trump to remain competitive in Arizona “in the wake of the most challenging and arguably worst three months of his term.”
“Despite several key swing constituencies not going in his favor and a deficit in Maricopa County, the state remains a ‘toss-up’ because of his team’s laser focus on his key audiences. Plus, there is still an additional 4% to 8% of the electorate up for grabs,” Bentz said. “As this boils down to a turnout game, we will need to keep our eyes on voter registration and enthusiasm during the primary over the next few months.”
Biden’s slight lead in Arizona is mirrored when contrasted with the state’s polling averages. RealClearPolitics, for instance, has Delaware’s 36-year senator with an average 4-point lead on Trump, even though Trump won it by 3.5 points in 2016 over then-rival Hillary Clinton.
HighGround pollsters surveyed 400 likely voters from May 18-22 via cellphones and landlines. The findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.
