A new national survey testing the popularity of a center-left independent presidential bid, like that of former Starbucks chief Howard Schultz, would rob enough votes from the Democratic nominee to help President Trump win a second term.
For every Republican who defected to the third party candidate, five Democrats would switch.
And in the end, according to the latest poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, it could result in Trump taking 34 percent of the 2020 vote, the Democrat 32 percent, and the independent 16 percent.
“The Democrats’ visceral reaction to a potential Howard Schultz run doesn’t look like an overreaction,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “A five-to-one defection rate is cause for alarm.”
In a two way generic race, she said, voters preferred a Democrat by 11 points, 48 percent to 37 percent. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%
Democrats have been urging Schultz to step out of the race, but he is moving forward with campaign events. He presents himself as a centrist progressive when the Democratic party is lurching left.
His team told Secrets later today that it’s too early to consider polls on a third party candidate, especially when put up against an “ideal” Democrat and Trump.
“American voters should not concern themselves with conclusions drawn about Howard Schultz by a poll that pits President Trump against a generic, ideal Democrat and a nameless independent, especially this far from Election Day when a process spanning two years has to play out,” said spokeswoman Erin McPike.
“It sidesteps realities about how the Democratic field is shaping up, just as it ignores what really impacts Americans’ lives, like access to opportunity, and that is what Howard cares most about,” she added.
The Wason Center survey provided details on the “defectors” to a third party.
“Further analysis revealed that 45 percent percent of the ‘defectors’ self-identify or lean Democratic, compared with 31 percent Republican and 19 percent independent. Fully 77 percent describe their political ideology as ‘moderate.’” said the analysis.
“These are strange times, but history suggests that spoiler is the most likely role a third-party candidate will play in 2020,” said Wason Center Director Quentin Kidd.
The key takeaways highlighted in the poll release:
- Having an Independent candidate in the 2020 presidential race dramatically improves President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection.
- In a head-to-head match-up of the 2020 general election, Trump trails a generic Democratic Party nominee among likely voters by 11 points, 37 percent to 48 percent, with 9 percent of voters undecided.
- With an Independent in the race, the election becomes a statistical tie between Trump and his Democratic Party rival, 34 percent to 32 percent, with 16 percent going to the Independent, and 16 percent undecided.
- An analysis of voters who selected the Independent option after initially selecting Trump or the generic Democrat reveals that for every voter Trump loses, the Democrat loses 5.
