Bankers are bullish on President Trump.
A solid majority, 56%, of bankers believe the most likely outcome of the election is Trump beating Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to a survey conducted by Arizent, the publisher of American Banker.
Meanwhile, 64% of bankers believe a Trump victory would be the best outcome for their industry, and 51% said a Republican sweep of the White House, House, and Senate would be the best for the industry.
“Banks have gotten a significant reduction in the corporate tax rate, and they’ve seen the regulatory environment improve under President Trump, so it’s not surprising that the status quo is preferable to the unknown,” Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, told American Banker.
Banks benefited from the lowering of the corporate tax rate in the 2017 GOP tax overhaul. Trump also cut regulations imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act, which assisted many banks.
Bankers’ perceptions of the race are at odds with polling. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump down by nearly 7 percentage points. Trump has not been within 4 percentage points of Biden’s lead since October 2019.
One reason for the difference in polling results could be the source of information, as bank officers speak with business community leaders daily.
“They have a pretty good pulse of their communities and their business markets, so they do have a unique insight as to what’s going on around them,” Brian Gardner, an analyst at KBW, told American Banker.
A Biden presidency could be bad for banks’ bottom lines.
The former vice president has vowed to increase the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. That increase would drop the net income of the country’s 10 largest banks by more than $7 billion, according to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Biden has also vowed to restore the Dodd-Frank regulations undone by Trump.
Arizent also publishes Accounting Today, which reported that 55% of accountants back Trump while 38% support Biden.
