Pledging to hold China accountable for the coronavirus is the hottest message in Republican politics, and it resonates with independents, bolstering President Trump’s strategy to turn Beijing into a key issue in the fall campaign.
Republican voters overwhelmingly blame China for the pandemic and support action by the United States to retaliate against the ruling communist party. Polls show GOP anger with the Asian power is boiling over amid mounting deaths and job losses. But a healthy majority of independents agree, and Republican pollsters who are gauging voter opinion of Beijing in private surveys say that Trump’s decision to elevate the message is a no-brainer.
“The China message is testing off the charts in our GOP primary polling,” veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said Thursday.
The coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, has infected more than 1.2 million people in the U.S., leaving nearly 76,000 dead. Meanwhile, more than 35 million people have lost their jobs since early March. Some voters hold Trump responsible — yet more blame the Chinese regime, charging a cover-up that prevented the U.S. from saving lives and avoiding a recession.
In a national survey conducted last week by Republican pollster David Winston, China’s favorability among American voters had plummeted to 14%, with 67% viewing the country unfavorably. When the poll asked respondents to agree or disagree with the statement “China misled the world about the seriousness of the coronavirus,” 69% agreed, and just 13% disagreed. And when asked if U.S. dependence on China for its manufacturing supply chain was a serious problem, 76% said yes, and 12% said no.
This broad-based concern explains why Trump is planning to make an issue of China’s malfeasance in his reelection campaign and why congressional Republicans are already doing so.
“When you look at the numbers, they cut across party lines,” Winston said. “There’s a clear dissatisfaction with China.”
This week, Trump compared the coronavirus outbreak to the attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan during World War II and said it “is worse” than the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. And the president emphasized that it happened because China was negligent. “Could’ve been stopped in China,” he said. “It could’ve been stopped right at the source. And it wasn’t.”
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is accusing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden of being too cozy with Beijing.
Navigator, a consortium of Democratic firms that tracks voter reaction to the pandemic, confirmed that Americans have grown increasingly frustrated with China.
But the group’s latest survey shows voters divided as to whether Trump or the Chinese government is responsible for the severity of the coronavirus in the U.S., with 47% blaming the president and 43% angry at Beijing. Navigator’s polling also suggests that voters see Trump’s beef with China as an attempt to deflect blame (58%), rather than hold the regime accountable (42%). Republicans mostly side with Trump; independents lean against him.
These data points, as interpreted by Democratic strategists, offer clues to their plans to defend Biden and use the China issue against Trump.
“Democrats understand that the Chinese government’s early actions made this crisis worse,” Navigator adviser Ian Sams said. “But, in fact, it was Trump who spent months coddling them, praising their handling of the outbreak and [Chinese President Xi Jinping’s] vows of transparency.”
But Republican operatives are confident that pointing fingers at China is a winning issue. They argue that Democrats who blame Trump for the pandemic are carrying water for the Chinese Communist Party and making a mistake that will haunt Biden in November.
Nevertheless, Republican pollsters caution that people are prioritizing the economy. Even Republican voters are more interested in hearing messages about jobs than they are about punishing China.
A Republican pollster advising congressional candidates is recommending that they capitalize on the China issue through free media. He is urging them to publish op-eds, appear on talk radio and in cable news programs, and post on social media platforms. But this pollster is telling clients that all paid campaign messaging, such as television advertising, should focus on their agenda for reviving an economy that has been devastated by the coronavirus.
“I’m suggesting they go after China hard,” the GOP pollster said. “But paid efforts should focus on the economy.”
