We’re one year into the Trump presidency and one year out from the 2018 midterm elections.
Conventional wisdom would dictate that unpopular presidents inspire electoral backlash, but Democrats may have to work harder to make gains at the ballot box next November. An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken recently asked respondents to answer whether they would vote for a generic Republican or Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives if the election were held today. Among registered voters, 51 percent chose the Democrat while 40 percent chose the Republican.
For Democrats, that’s welcome news approaching the one year mark. But further analysis of the poll reveals a key problem for the party. “Winnow down to those who say they voted in the last midterms and are certain to do so again,” Gary Langer wrote in his breakdown for ABC News, “and the contest snaps essentially to a dead heat, 48-46 percent.”
The Washington Examiner’s David Freddoso explored the poll in greater detail here.
“According to the poll, 24 percent of the registered voters say they’ll be casting votes to show support for Trump, compared to 27 percent who say their midterm vote will represent a show of opposition to him,” he explained. “That’s only a 3 point net negative, with another 49 percent stating that Trump is irrelevant to how they will vote for U.S. House next November.”
All of this looks a lot like Democrats have an enthusiasm problem, which is understandable given the DNC’s recent struggles against a string of controversies and how sharply the party remains divided over the 2016 primary race. As of now, the mere opportunity to vote against Trump may not be enough for Democrats to make gains next November — to do that, they’ll need to give people something to vote for other than candidates who will primarily be anti-Trump. Railroading progressives with populist appeal like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to elevate cookie-cutter liberals along the lines of Hillary Clinton won’t be a smart strategy, but neither will sprinting further Left and alienating centrist voters.
To say the least, Democrats are in a tough spot going forward.
If they aren’t able to overcome questions about its role in the 2016 primaries or present the public with a clear and appealing vision for the future, the party will likely struggle even in the case that President Trump’s approval rating remains low.
