Not good news, so far, for Republicans in the Pennsylvania 12th district special election. Democrat Mark Critz is leading Republican Tim Burns 55%-43%, with 50% of districts reporting. The good news for Republicans is that Cambria County (Johnstown), where Critz is strong, seems to be mostly in, while Armstrong County, the most Republican portion of the district, hasn’t reported anything. But Critz is carrying the Fayette and Greene County portions of the district. Those whole counties voted, narrowly, for John McCain in 2008, in contradistinction to their longtime heavily Democratic leanings. Only part of Fayette County, presumably the most Democratic part (because Republican redistricters loaded this district with Democratic areas to help the late Democrat John Murtha in the 12th and Republicans in adjacent districts), is in the district. Even so, the Democrat, who was a Murtha aide, is running ahead of Obama in these areas—and looks likely to win. Likely Republican spin: Democrats turned out in larger numbers than Republicans because of the Specter-Sestak race. Like Democratic response: lots of registered Democrats voted against Obama in 2008 but voted for Democrat Critz this time. As Sean Trende of realclearpolitics.com has pointed out, this is not a district Republicans need to win to get to a House majority. But it will be disappointing for them if, as seems likely, they fall short.
On the other hand, Critz said he opposed the health care bill and cap-and-trade, both of which Murtha supported. It will be hard to spin a Critz win as a win for the E. J. Dionne Left.
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