California Gov. Gavin Newsom should still be considered the favorite in the recall effort against him. But the past week has shown just how precarious his situation really is.

A poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies indicates that Newsom is narrowly ahead among likely voters, with 50% supporting him finishing out his term while 47% would vote to replace him. He has more of a cushion among registered voters, but the lack of motivation among those who are more likely to support him could be an issue come September.