California Gov. Gavin Newsom should still be considered the favorite in the recall effort against him. But the past week has shown just how precarious his situation really is.
A poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies indicates that Newsom is narrowly ahead among likely voters, with 50% supporting him finishing out his term while 47% would vote to replace him. He has more of a cushion among registered voters, but the lack of motivation among those who are more likely to support him could be an issue come September.
That same poll shows that 51% of registered voters disapprove of Newsom’s performance so far, and a double-digit majority of voters say that California is on the wrong track.
Newsom should be building momentum as California’s reopening has continued, but instead, Democrats in California and Washington, D.C., have made that more difficult. Two weeks ago, Los Angeles County reimposed its mask mandate, thanks to media-driven hysteria around the delta variant of COVID-19. All eyes then turned to Newsom to see if he would drag the state back toward its earlier lockdowns. So far, he hasn’t budged.
Now, President Joe Biden and his Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have brought back the guidance that recommends that vaccinated adults wear masks indoors while also recommending that children be forced to wear masks in schools. It is a clear rejection of everything we know about the virus and science, and it puts Newsom in a difficult position.
If Newsom embraces the new guidance and moves California backward, he will increase the intensity of the recall campaign against him and push more persuadable voters toward the recall effort. But even if the state doesn’t bring back mask mandates, localities could follow Los Angeles County and now claim they are deferring to the bureaucrats at the CDC. That could harm Newsom even if he doesn’t directly drag Californians back into mask mandates.
Newsom hasn’t learned his lesson yet, either. After his son was caught indoors without a mask at a summer camp, Newsom responded by pulling his children out of the camp. No doubt, he fears another public relations disaster like his French Laundry dinner, which originally breathed life into the recall effort. But the correct takeaway would have been to lift mask restrictions on children. He’s still basing his decisions on politics, not science, which is how he ended up in this predicament in the first place.
With less than two months before he must face voters, Newsom’s bad week could snowball. None of California’s gubernatorial candidates are all that intimidating, but Newsom isn’t running against them. He is running against himself and his own record. And Biden has just joined Los Angeles County in trying to make things as difficult as possible for him.
