As Virginia political junkies settle-in for our first-ever permanent campaign, the Washington Post comes along to provide a sugary snack just when things were beginning to look a bit dull.
The paper’s Senate poll shows what everyone already knows at this very early stage of the contest: George Allen enjoys the support of 54 percent of Republican leaners and 57 percent among likely Republican voters, placing him light years ahead of the rest of the GOP field. His closest challenger is “no opinion,” which clocked-in with 28 percent.
Those numbers will change, of course, and those who are saying the race is over now – more than a year before the primary ballots are cast – are kidding themselves. Or on the Allen payroll. And perhaps both. Still, there can be no doubt that Allen still retains the affection, and support, of the bulk of the GOP base. The nomination is his to lose.
But far more intriguing are the numbers matching Allen against the all-but certain Democratic nominee, Tim Kaine. In a hypothetical contest, the two are tied with 46 percent of the vote a piece…among registered voters who voiced a candidate preference.
That sounds…irrelevant. And at this point in the contest it is.
But it also fits a pattern in Virginia races, where the faithful plight their troths ages before anyone else realizes there’s an election afoot. The Allen-Kaine numbers may move a point or two either way over the next few months, causing much excitement in some corners, and defiance in others.
But most people won’t care. Until sometime in late September, 2012.
Here’s one thing to keep in mind though: Tim Kaine is one of Virginia’s most successful politicians. He’s never lost a race, beating Democrats to his left and right as well as conservative stalwarts and establishment Republicans along the way. And just as he had in 2005, the still quite popular Mark Warner will be in his corner, cheering him on, appearing in his television ads and helping him raise money (though Kaine is no slouch in the department).
Plus, Kaine will have the President at the top of the ticket.
If the President can come close to posting the numbers he did while winning the state in 2008, Kaine will win the Senate seat.
That’s Kaine’s advantage, and his greatest problem. If the President loses Virginia, Kaine goes down, too. And no need to worry about ticket splitters: there are no Obama/Allen, Obama/Radtke or Obama/McCormick voters in Virginia.
But are there any Romney/Kaine, Pawlenty/Kaine or…Trump/Kaine voters? No.
Virginia’s next Senator will be of the same party as the man who wins the state’s electoral votes.
