“I have always been fond of the West African proverb: Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” – Teddy Roosevelt, 1900
President Trump seems to think the U.S. might be on the verge of diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea.
As Trump explained at a Seoul press conference Tuesday, “I really believe that it makes sense for North Korea to come to the table and to make a deal that’s good for the people of North Korea and the people of the world. I do see certain movement, yes. But let’s see what happens.”
Those words strike a sharp contrast with Trump’s previously aggressive rhetoric towards North Korea: “rocket man,” “fire and fury,” etc. So, what’s changed?
I suspect that Trump senses China might be close to getting North Korea to the negotiating table. The best evidence for this supposition comes from what Trump said later in his press conference, when he added, “I want to just say that President Xi – where we will be tomorrow, China – has been very helpful. We’ll find out how helpful soon. But he really has been very, very helpful. So, China is out trying very hard to solve the problem with North Korea.”
Note that “we’ll find out how helpful soon” comment in the context of Trump’s “I do see a certain movement, yes” remark. These words suggest Xi might have told Trump that he’s making progress in pushing Kim Jong Un to stop firing missiles and detonating nuclear weapons. Certainly, Trump seems optimistic about what might come from his trip to Beijing on Wednesday.
Still, Trump wasn’t all about the peace talk. The president qualified his diplomatic aspirations by stating, “You know we sent three of the largest aircraft carriers in the world, and they’re right now positioned. We have a nuclear submarine also positioned.”
As I outlined last week, those aircraft carriers are designed to send a message to China as much as to North Korea. In the same vein, Trump’s reference to a “nuclear submarine” probably refers to a nuclear ballistic missile boat that could launch nuclear strikes on North Korea. China hates the presence of these capabilities in its orbit.
Yet, Trump has also pressured China in one other way this week via his announcement that Japan will buy advanced U.S. military equipment. Again, fearing degradation of its hegemony strategy, China is deeply concerned by the prospect of Japan and South Korea responding to North Korea’s threat by increasing their high-end military capabilities. Trump should extend this military buildup towards India.
Put simply, Trump seems to be offering Xi a binary choice between forcing Kim Jong Un to the negotiating table in earnestness or facing uncomfortable U.S. pressure. If so, it’s the right approach. America has a very great interest in achieving a credible diplomatic deal with North Korea, but that will only happen if China fears its interests will suffer greatly in the absence of such a deal.
If Xi fails to deliver in Beijing, Trump should further strengthen U.S. and allied military power in the Pacific and exert new pressure on China’s financial system.
