Who’s going to run for president in 2020?

I certainly don’t have any inside information about any of these candidates’ political career plans. The answer consists of a lot of speculation, but it’s still fun to think about.

Remember that in 2012, almost no one imagined that Donald Trump would run for president in 2016, or that if he did he would win the Republican nomination. But here we are: Trump is president-elect. Maybe the same thing could happen in 2020. Kanye West has already declared his candidacy, after all.

Obviously, the events of 2017, 2018 and 2019 will shape this list. A governor who stands up to union activists, signs major legislation and wins three elections in four years, like Scott Walker did in Wisconsin, could easily join this list. A senator who stages a major filibuster, like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz have, might join the list as well.

Have a debacle like Mike Pence did with religious freedom legislation? Perhaps that puts you off the list. (But apparently they could still end up as vice president).

To be clear, this is a list of people who might run for president, not necessarily people who have a good chance of winning.

Regardless of which party wins the White House in 2016, here is your way-too-early guide to people who might run for president in 2020.

Democrats

Cory Booker

The senator from New Jersey rose to fame as the passionate mayor of Newark from 2006-f13. When he decided to run for the Senate in 2013, Booker was seen by many as the next Barack Obama. That didn’t happen in 2016, but Booker is young and has plenty of time to consider it.

Age on Election Day 2020: 51

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Sherrod Brown

A popular senator from swing-state Ohio could run for president and claim to be one of the most electable Democrats in the race. Brown was rumored to be on Clinton’s short list for vice president, showing that he has the right characteristics to make a run for higher office.

First, Brown has to win re-election in 2018, but that shouldn’t be a problem unless someone with the home-state clout of John Kasich decides to run against him.

Age on Election Day 2020: 67

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 3

Julian Castro

Castro, the secretary of housing and urban development, was rumored to be on Clinton’s vice presidential short list. Although he didn’t get picked, the former mayor of San Antonio is well-known in liberal circles. Given his Hispanic background, Castro could be a powerful vote mobilizer if Trump is running for re-election in 2020 while trying to defend anti-immigrant policies.

Age on Election Day 2020: 46

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Andrew Cuomo

Cuomo’s father, Mario, came infamously close to running for president. Could Andrew make the jump? Any governor of New York has a national profile, and Cuomo is no exception.

Cuomo can make the case that he’s been a pragmatic liberal and claim he cut taxes while being tough on guns. Cuomo also has connections to the Clinton political machine, having spent four years as Bill Clinton’s secretary of housing and urban development.

Age on Election Day 2020: 62

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Bill de Blasio

There were some low rumblings about the mayor of New York City running in 2016, but it never happened. He did take a few trips to important primary states like Iowa and Wisconsin, which is strange since they don’t have much in common with New York City.

As mayor of the country’s biggest city, de Blasio can claim to have more constituents than many governors and senators. He’s also based in the media capital of the country, almost ensuring he would get the level of media buzz necessary for a presidential run.

Age on Election Day 2020: 59

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Keith Ellison

In 2008, the party nominated the first African-American candidate of a major party. In 2016, it was the first female. Why not go for the first Muslim nominee of a major party in 2020? Ellison, a congressman from Minnesota, was the first Muslim ever elected to Congress. He is almost as liberal as Bernie Sanders and could possibly compete for the same kind of votes as Elizabeth Warren would.

Age on Election Day 2020: 57

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Tim Kaine

As a lovable dad-type, Kaine feels more like a vice president than a president, but it doesn’t mean he wouldn’t run. The senator from Virginia can use his national profile from Clinton’s 2016 run to take an early lead in polls based on name recognition alone.

Surviving the thorough vetting process of Clinton’s 2016 run also shows there are probably no skeletons in Kaine’s closet. And perhaps most importantly, all the major donors boosting Clinton in 2016 will be close to Kaine.

Kaine said in November 2016 that he wouldn’t seek the presidency or vice presidency in 2020, but perhaps he’ll change his mind.

Age on Election Day 2020: 62

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 1

Amy Klobuchar

In 2008, when Hillary Clinton’s first campaign was in the fight of its life against Obama, the New York Times ran a piece on women who might be the first female president. At the time, it predicted the first female president would probably be a governor, but it listed Klobuchar, a senator from Minnesota, as a prospect.

Klobuchar has yet to make a run, but there hasn’t been a campaign as wide open as the Democratic primary will likely be if Clinton loses in 2016. The former Hennepin County attorney seems to be a favorite of the liberal intellectual class, having once been named by the New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin as a potential Supreme Court nominee. Klobuchar also spoke at the 2016 Democratic Convention.

Age on Election Day 2020: 60

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Terry McAuliffe

McAuliffe is a lot like Kaine, right down to the home state. The governor of Virginia has close ties to the Clinton camp, having served as co-chair of Clinton’s 2008 campaign and co-chair of Bill Clinton’s 1996 campaign. McAuliffe is also well-known by Democrats who will remember his chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee from 2001-05.

He could also use his position as chair of the National Governor’s Association to lay the groundwork for important endorsements. McAuliffe might have some skeletons in his closet, though that hasn’t stopped Clinton.

Age on Election Day 2020: 63

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 3

Elizabeth Warren

At age 79, it seems unlikely that Bernie Sanders would run for president again in 2020. Who better to take up his extremely liberal mantle than Warren, a senator from Massachusetts? A “Draft Warren” movement begged her to run in 2016, but it wasn’t meant to be. Given her national profile, Warren seems likely to run for president at some point, but if she doesn’t run soon, she might decide she’s too old for the job.

Age on Election Day 2020: 71

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Other possibilities: Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton, Kamala Harris (assuming she wins California’s Senate election in 2016), Katie McGinty (assuming she wins Pennsylvania’s Senate election in 2016).

Republicans

You never know why, but for whatever reason, perhaps Trump won’t run for re-election in 2020. Perhaps he’ll get a conservative challenger even if he does run.

(Note: For what it’s worth, Mitch Daniels, Larry Hogan, John Kasich and Ben Sasse are the only Republicans listed below who have not endorsed Trump for president. The others support Trump, some wholeheartedly. Others simply say they support “the Republican nominee.”)

Greg Abbott

The last two governors of Texas have run for president, why not the current one? He’s already published the book that seems to be routine for anyone who makes a bid. Any governor of the biggest red state gets a loud bullhorn, and Abbott has a compelling story to go with it: Ever since a tree fell on him in 1984, Abbott has used a wheelchair. It ended his career as a track star, but not his other aspirations.

Age on Election Day 2020: 62

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 means 50/50): 3

David Clarke

Technically, Clarke is a registered Democrat. But that seems like an electoral necessity in deep-blue Milwaukee County, where Clarke has been sheriff since 2002. Clarke frequently appears on Fox News and spoke at the Republican National Convention. It wouldn’t be shocking if he switched parties and launched an outsider bid for the presidency.

Age on Election Day 2020: 64

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Tom Cotton

Cotton is a senator from Arkansas, first elected in 2014. He comes from the foreign policy hawk wing of conservatism, similar to Lindsey Graham and John McCain. After graduating from Harvard Law School in 2002, Cotton served in the Army in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Age on Election Day 2020: 43 (If elected, Cotton would just miss the record for youngest president ever: Theodore Roosevelt was 42 when President John McKinley died and Roosevelt took office.)

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Ted Cruz

The GOP has a history of nominating the candidate that came second in the previous presidential primary (2016 being an obvious outlier), and Cruz finished second in the 2016 primary.

Cruz is still young and will have a political career through at least 2018, when he’ll be up for re-election in Texas. It will be interesting to watch Cruz after the 2016 election, as someone who resisted Trump for months but eventually endorsed him in late September.

Age on Election Day 2020: 49

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 6

Mitch Daniels

Daniels is president of Purdue University, previously the governor of Indiana from 2005-12. Having been out of political office for so long, Daniels might suffer from some of the problems that plagued Jeb Bush’s 2016 run for president (although it probably helps that Daniels’ last name isn’t “Bush”). Many hoped he would run in 2012, but Daniels declined.

Age on Election Day 2020: 71 (If Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 and Daniels wins in 2020, he would set a record for the oldest president to assume office. That record is currently held by Ronald Reagan at nearly 70 years old).

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 1

Sean Duffy

If nominated, Duffy would be the second GOP nominee in a row to be a former reality TV star. Duffy was on MTV’s “The Real World,” as was his wife, Rachel. It would be interesting to see if the Duffys can bridge Trump’s GOP base and immigration-friendly voters.

Duffy endorsed Trump soon after Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee. While Duffy and Rachel spoke on stage at the GOP convention, she was briefly booed when she said her parents immigrated from Mexico.

Age on Election Day 2020: 49

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Joni Ernst

Ernst is something of a rising star in the GOP. The senator from Iowa was first elected in 2014, but rose to fame when she gave the 2015 GOP response to the State of the Union. Ernst also gave a prime-time speech at the 2016 GOP convention. Ernst served in the Army from 1993-2015.

Age on Election Day 2020: 50

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 2

Nikki Haley

First a Rubio endorser, then a Cruz supporter, the reasons Haley is a conservative darling are the same reasons she could be a presidential candidate. She’s an Indian-American, a woman and the youngest active governor in the country. Haley gave the Republican response to the 2016 State of the Union.

If someone other than Trump had been the GOP nominee, she would have been on the short list for running mate. As governor of South Carolina, she seems to get credit nationwide for the way she handled the state’s Confederate flag controversy in July 2015.

Age on Election Day 2020: 48 (perhaps a sign of fate: Haley was born on Jan. 20, which is usually Inauguration Day)

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Larry Hogan

The second-most popular governor in the country is a GOP governor in a deep-blue state. Hogan’s victory shocked everyone in 2014. Now he seems to be showing the country how to govern as a pragmatist and build bridges with Democrats in the state legislature (contra Chris Christie). Hogan was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in June 2015, but thankfully it’s now in remission.

Age on Election Day 2020: 64

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 1

John Kasich

Kasich, the governor of Ohio, showed the country how stubborn he is in 2016 with how long he dragged on his long-shot presidential campaign. There’s not much reason to think a 2020 campaign would go much better, but if his approach to 2016 is any indication, it seems likely that Kasich will give it another go. Then again, Kasich also ran in 2000 and it’s rare for someone to run for president three times.

Age on Election Day 2020: 68

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Rand Paul

If age weren’t an issue, Ron Paul probably would have been glad to be the Libertarian darling in every GOP primary. Now that his son, Rand, has run for president once, what’s to stop him from running again and again? Rand has beliefs similar to his dad and could be the perennial almost-Libertarian candidate in the GOP primaries.

Age on Election Day 2020: 57

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Mike Pence

Obviously, Pence is going to have a pretty high national profile as vice president. If Trump weren’t running for re-election for some reason, it would have to be for something inoccuous that doesn’t hurt Pence’s political career, like health issues. Pence has been an interesting running mate to Trump, becoming well-liked even by Republicans who oppose Trump.

Age on Election Day 2020: 61

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Marco Rubio

The senator from Florida initially said he wouldn’t run for re-election in 2016, perhaps a bit of overconfidence that he would be the GOP presidential nominee. When he reversed and decided to run for re-election, it was rumored to be because Rubio decided it would be easier to run for president in 2020 from the Senate.

And with Rubio’s experience and characteristics, why not run again? He could end up as the establishment favorite if he plays his cards right.

Age on Election Day 2020: 49

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 5

Paul Ryan

The widely praised 2012 vice presidential pick is now the reluctant speaker of the House. It’s rare for former or active speakers to run for the White House, but Ryan is a special case.

Although he’s not loved by the extremely conservative crowd, Ryan is still one of the few people who bridge moderate Republicans and Tea Party-types. His wonky approach to policy makes him well-liked by conservative intellectuals, especially on budget issues.

Age on Election Day 2020: 50

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 3

Ben Sasse

One of the more vocal members of the #NeverTrump wing of the GOP, the senator from Nebraska was called on by some to jump in the 2016 race as an independent after Trump clinched the nomination. Sasse’s down-home attitude and steadfast resilience against Trump in the face of other Republicans jumping on board suggests he may actually be too humble to run for president himself.

Age on Election Day 2020: 48

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 3

Tim Scott

If you’ve never seen Tim Scott speak before, you should: The senator from South Carolina knows how to connect with an audience. Whether telling self-deprecating jokes about his humble beginnings or talking about the discrimination he’s faced from police, Scott, an African-American, is a great communicator. Scott is quite conservative ideologically but knows how to govern pragmatically for legislative progress.

Age on Election Day 2020: 55

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 3

Scott Walker

The Wisconsin governor could be the Rick Perry of 2020: An early favorite in the previous election cycle whose failure could be chalked up to lackluster debate performances and a mismanaged campaign. (Walker probably won’t end up on “Dancing With the Stars,” though.)

In theory, that’s nothing that can’t be fixed in four years time. The only challenge is for Walker to stay in the news for the right reasons. Walker’s second term ends in January 2019, but Wisconsin doesn’t have term limits and Walker hasn’t announced if he’ll run for governor again.

Age on Election Day 2020: 52

Likelihood of running (5 means definitely running, 3 being 50/50): 4

Other possibilities: Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan or Sen. Mike Lee of Utah (if Rand Paul doesn’t run), Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington.

Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.