President Obama failed to strongly challenge China’s “adventurism” in the South China Sea, and now President-elect Trump must get tough with Beijing to reverse the country’s “effective control over one of the world’s most important strategic waterways,” a new report says.
The report from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released Wednesday says that given Trump’s recent provocative statements regarding China, including questioning the value of America’s long-standing One-China policy, one wouldn’t think he would need much urging to adopt a more hard-line stance.
But the report by the independent, nonpartisan think tank concludes China has been taking advantage of the Obama administration’s overly cautious approach to make substantial progress toward its goal of pushing Western forces and strategic influence out of the South China Sea and most of the Western Pacific.
“In consequence, an important question for the Trump administration is how the United States and its close regional allies, primarily Japan and Australia, can thwart Beijing’s expansionism,” writes Ross Babbage, the report’s author.
The report advocates forcefully confronting China publicly, while privately working with regional allies to exploit China’s weaknesses to force its senior leaders to “recalibrate their goals to be less ambitious and more cautious,” by “periodically initiating unexpected actions and imposing unforeseen new penalties.”
One aspect of the report’s recommendations that may particularly appeal to Trump’s preference for unpredictably is the notion that some actions be taken in secret, to keep the Chinese off-balance and encourage greater caution in Beijing.
“Some allied leaders may be tempted to do nothing or continue to take timid, token actions in response to Beijing’s expansionism,” Babbage writes. But he argues that flawed approach has already failed, and simply allowed China to continue its ambitious military construction on reefs and man-made islands in the South China Sea.
So far the U.S. response has been to call for free sea and air passage, while insisting the U.S. is neutral in territorial disputes.
“In token support of these interests, allied ships and aircraft have periodically transited the region, though they have rarely challenged China’s territorial claims directly,” the report concludes.
The Trump administration should adopt a more robust strategy, the report urges, “that would require more than the repetitive statement of tactical interests and the periodic token passage of military ships and aircraft through the region.”
The author concludes that the approach of the Obama administration to date has been “flat-footed” and is already pushing many countries into the arms of Beijing.
Notably, Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte has been cozying up to Beijing, but Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and even Malaysia are also developing closer relationships with China.
“Regional governments now view China as not only their most important economic partner, but also as a friend who doesn’t interfere with their sensitive domestic issues, unlike the United States,” says the report.
The author’s conclusion: “United States and its allies have sporadic military presences in the region and are behaving very cautiously. Significant damage is being done to U.S. and allied credibility. In the absence of major changes, much of Southeast Asia will shift into Beijing’s orbit.”
