Rep. Mark Meadows is staring down President Trump in a high-stakes health care negotiation that carries significant political risks for him back home in western North Carolina.
Meadows’ 11th district delivered more votes for Trump in November than any other in the state.
Republican insiders there say the congressman could suffer a backlash if his party’s bill to repeal and replace Obamacare fails in a scheduled Thursday vote because the group of House insurgents he leads refuses to compromise with the president.
“If it comes down to it, and there’s no deal at all, our mountain people are going to side with Trump,” said Steve Coleman, chairman of the Republican Party in Cherokee County, in the far west corner of North Carolina. “Our voters want to see it get worked out.”
Meadows, 57, is a genial firebrand, if there is such a thing.
The third-term congressman and former real estate developer is unfailingly polite. Throughout the 17-day debate over the American Health Care Act , he has greeted the sharp questions directed at him by the Capitol Hill press corps with his usual smile.
In December, he was elected chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. The group of about 40 Republicans typically opposes major GOP initiatives on the grounds that they think are insufficiently conservative.
Those predictable complaints have extended to the AHCA, a co-product of the Trump administration and House Republican leadership. As head of the Freedom Caucus, Meadows has become the face of the Republican opposition to the package.
Meadows has said that his goal is to negotiate legislation that will reduce the cost of insurance premiums. Talks between Meadows and his group, and the White House and House Republican leaders, were still ongoing late Wednesday.
“I’m working to get to ‘yes,’ and looking forward to lowering health care premiums,” the congressman said this week in an interview.
“The district is 100 percent behind the congressman in the way he has been standing firm,” claimed a supportive Republican operative who lives in Meadows’ district, speaking on condition of anonymity.
As a policy matter, Meadows is on solid ground.
In interviews with the Washington Examiner, Republican operatives across North Carolina, regardless of their opinions of Meadows, said that GOP voters there are anxious for relief from expensive — and rising — health insurance premiums. They want immediate action, especially after seven years of promises by Republicans that they would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
The question is, who will GOP voters in the 11th district blame if Trump and the conservatives, led by Meadows, can’t agree — and the Republican Party, in full control in Washington, appears incapable of doing anything to fix this vexing problem?
Meadows wouldn’t have much too worry about if he was tussling with House Speaker Paul Ryan. His voters don’t have much use for congressional leaders, whom they see as the embodiment of an establishment that has disappointed them.
But their faith in Trump is strong. He’s the outsider they sent to D.C. to shake things up. They trust that he has their back.
If Trump tells them that this bill is their one chance to get rid of former President Barack Obama’s hated health care law and lower their insurance costs, and it gets derailed by Republicans, Meadows’ political standing could take a damaging hit.
“They like their congressman; I like my congressman,” said Leo Phillips, an early Trump supporter who serves as vice chairman of the Republican Party of the 11th congressional district. “But when you get into a discussion between [Trump] and Meadows, I don’t’ think Meadows is going to come out on the right side of that.”
On Tuesday, during a closed-door session with House Republicans to rally votes for what is essentially his healthcare bill, Trump called out Meadows in front of his colleagues. The president’s tone was friendly, but the message sent was unmistakable: Cross me and pay a price in 2018.
The midterm election could play out that way — or not.
Meadows won re-election with 64.09 percent of the vote, slightly more than the 63.3 percent that Trump garnered in the 11th district. Whether he faces political turbulence next year depends upon multiple factors.
If the AHCA passes, even over Meadows’ objections, he could be complimented for taking a principled stand and credited with improving the bill.
Regardless, the only likely way to take him out is in a Republican primary, given the partisan leanings of his district, and doing that requires a candidate with resources and stature. That requires a challenger to step up.
But Trump would also have to step up, and be willing to direct his considerable political firepower against the incumbent. So far in the healthcare debate, that’s something the president has said he’s prepared to do to get his bill passed, but hasn’t actually done.
Skeptics point out that even that isn’t a sure thing. Last year, prior to winning the election, Trump endorsed in a Republican House primary in North Carolina, and the horse he picked lost anyway.
“My guess is, it’s not one of those things where [voters] are going to say: ‘We’re mad as hell at Mark Meadows and not going to vote for him,'” said Carter Wrenn, a Republican strategist in Raleigh. “It’s more a case of, it raises a question and he can probably deal with that fine.”
