Mark Blumenthal, the Democratic pollster who runs pollster.com, has an interesting post on Sarah Palin. He argues, on the one hand, that Palin has a base of admirers among Republican voters as formidable as the base of admirers Barack Obama had among Democratic voters three or four years ago. Then, on the other hand, he argues that Palin has not shown the political surefootedness that Obama did—or Ronald Reagan before him. As one has come to expect from Blumenthal, it’s a thoughtful post, based solidly on data, by a thoughtful and clearminded observer.

