Here’s a guide for following tonight’s results, in the order of when the last polls close in each state. Print it out if you like, and use it to focus on the results that will be decisive.
Since everyone wants to see predictions, I expect Democrats to gain about 15 House seats and four Senate seats (for a total of 50), and Hillary Clinton to win with 323 electoral votes. But that’s not really the point of what follows.
To the extent that there are specific predictions below, they are intended to reflect the benchmark expectations. If the results you see are different from those hinted at below, it will give you a sense of how things are going, one way or another.
7 p.m. Eastern
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
By 6 pm Eastern, polls will be closed in most of Indiana. That includes its open 9th District, featuring a close race where Republican Trey Hollingsworth is slightly favored to hold the seat of Rep. Todd Young, R, who is on the ballot for Senate.
When the polls close in the northwest corner at 7 p.m., Trump should be called the victor. One other early race to be called will be probably Indiana’s Senate race. If former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh somehow pulls it out, then Democrats are all but guaranteed to control the U.S. Senate. If Young wins, as expected, then Republicans at least remain in the ballgame.
Democrats are slightly favored to take over the governor’s mansion.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Republican Sen. Rand Paul will cruise to re-election, and Trump will win by a large margin. No House races are seriously contested.
The most interesting result here will be in the state House, which Republicans failed to capture in 2014 but might finally take tonight.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Clinton should win here. If she doesn’t, it’s going to be a long night.
Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is in a tight race and could become the first called GOP casualty of the night, although her chances of survival are probably about even. Democrats will easily pick up the 4th District, abandoned by Rep. Randy Forbes, R, who chose instead to go district shopping in the neighboring 2nd District and lost the primary.
All other seats should be holds.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
If Donald Trump can’t win here, he’s toast. He probably will, but it might be too close to call right away. Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson should have no problems, and generally, Trump’s weakness should not cause too much trouble for Republicans further down the ballot.
South Carolina (9 electoral votes)
Trump wins, no change.
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Clinton will win easily. Republicans have a reasonable chance at taking the governor’s mansion.
7:30 p.m. Eastern
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Expect a quick Trump call in the presidential race.
The governor’s race will be more interesting. Republican Bill Cole appears to be catching up to Democrat Jim Justice just in time to win a wild three-way race. With help from heavy turnout for Trump, Cole may pull it off.
Ohio (18 electoral votes)
Expect an early call on the Senate race, in which Rob Portman is expected to survive by a wide margin against former Gov. Ted Strickland.
The presidential race might keep you up late, though. Trump is favored to win by the narrowest of margins. If he loses Ohio, it’s over.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Another must-win state for Trump — if he loses, it’s game over. Republicans’ ground operation in the state has been a cause for stress and concern for months now.
Senate control could depend on whether Republican Sen. Richard Burr manages to hang on against Democrat Deborah Ross. The best sign for him is Democrats’ underperformance in early voting from 2012, when Mitt Romney carried the state. The worst sign is that his numbers, irrespective of Ross’, have been low for an incumbent.
Gov. Pat McCrory is also in a tight race to keep his job against Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is narrowly favored to unseat him.
8 p.m. Eastern
Florida (29 electoral votes)
The presidential race here is “crazy tight,” in the words of one of Clinton’s top campaigners, so don’t expect too early a call, even though most of the state’s polls will have been closed for an hour by 8 p.m.
Republicans desperately need Marco Rubio to hang on and win his Senate seat, which he is expected to do.
Before 8 p.m., results could be announced in the open Treasure Coast seat of his Senate challenger, Rep. Patrick Murphy, D, where Republicans are favored to score a pickup. Thanks to a court-ordered round of redistricting, Republicans are also nearly certain to pick up the 2nd District in North Florida.
However, redistricting has given Democrats opportunities too. Rep. John Mica, R, is fighting to survive against Democrat Stephanie Murphy. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R, is the slight favorite in a rematch against former Rep. Joe Garcia, D, but Trump’s unpopularity in his heavily Hispanic district could be harmful to Curbelo’s electoral health.
The Democrats’ surest pickup is in the St. Petersburg-area 13th District. If former Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist fails to defeat Rep. David Jolly, it will be one of the more marvelous repeat chokes in the state’s political history.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
The Granite State offers Trump one possible path to the White House, but it is a very unlikely one. Clinton should win — if she does not, expect a long night ahead.
The count between Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and her challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, D, promises to be very close. An Ayotte victory makes Republican retention of the Senate much more likely. Polls fluctuate wildly, but Republican Chris Sununu is just slightly favored to win the governor’s race over Democrat Colin van Ostern. The State House and Senate could both flip to the GOP, but more likely they will not.
Democrats will score a House pickup by defeating embattled Rep. Frank Guinta, R.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
Trump is not expected to win here (just one late poll gives him any cause for hope), but he probably has to. It’s probably not wise to read too much into Clinton’s late trip here — it’s more due to the state’s lack of an early voting program than anything else.
The tighter and more interesting race is the Senate contest between Republican Sen. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty. Toomey has been getting the short end of this one in late polling, although not by much. A Republican win here, especially in combination with a win in Indiana or New Hampshire, would significantly increase Republicans’ odds of keeping the Senate.
The House race to watch is in the open 8th District, based in Bucks County, between Republican Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Steve Santarsiero.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Trump will lose statewide, but he has an opportunity to pick up one electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District (Maine, like Nebraska, splits votes).
That same district is home to a tight rematch between GOP Rep. Bruce Polliquin and Emily Cain, in which the incumbent is narrowly favored. Republican control of the state House and Democratic control of the state Senate are both very close.
Michigan (16 electoral votes)
If Trump wins here, it’s a sign that everyone was wrong and he’s well on his way to the presidency. More likely, Clinton comes out on top as expected.
Republicans should manage to hold on to the contested 1st Congressional District.
Illinois (20 electoral votes)
Clinton will win her home state. Republican Sen. Mark Kirk will finally be defeated by Tammy Duckworth after a long career of winning tight races.
Meanwhile, the Democratic gerrymander will keep most House seats stable. The one exception is the Lake County-based 10th District, where Republican Rep. Robert Dold‘s future is on a knife’s edge.
Missouri (10 electoral votes)
Trump should win here. The more interesting contests are down-ballot. Sen. Roy Blunt is only narrowly favored to survive a spirited challenge from Democrat Jason Kander. If he falls, then Democratic Senate control is virtually assured.
The governor’s race, between Republican Eric Greitens and Democrat Jay Koster, is a pure toss-up.
New Jersey (14 electoral votes)
Clinton will easily carry Gov. Chris Christie’s state.
Meanwhile, Rep. Scott Garrett, R, is in a close race that could throw his North Jersey district to the Democrats. If he holds up, it’s an early sign that Democrats won’t come anywhere close to taking the House.
Delaware (3 electoral votes)
Clinton will win, and Rep. John Carney, D, is heavily favored to win for governor.
Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island (32 electoral votes)
Don’t expect big news from any of these — Clinton and Democrats across the board.
Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma (33 electoral votes)
Trump x4, and nothing else surprising or consequential.
8:30 p.m. Eastern
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
No sympathy here for the state’s adopted daughter, or any other important Democrat, for that matter. Trump and Republicans all the way.
9 p.m. Eastern
Texas (38 electoral votes)
At 9 p.m. we should get a quick statewide call for Trump, as most of Texas will have been counting for a full hour. If not, he’s in really big trouble and we’re already well into watching a Republican bloodbath.
The one interesting House race will likely be the rematch between Rep. Will Hurd, R, in his marginal West Texas district against former Rep. Pete Gallego, D.
New York (29 electoral votes)
Clinton will easily win Trump’s home state.
Republican Rep. John Katko is expected to hang on to his Rochester-area seat, as is Republican Lee Zeldin in Long Island. Democrats may score a pickup in the competitive open 19th District in the Hudson Valley.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Clinton should win here, but as in 2012 it will once again be interesting to see whether Trump comes closer here than he does in Wisconsin.
Two House races to watch: Republican Erik Paulsen should hang on in the 3rd District, and Republican Stewart Mills has a shot at defeating Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan in the 8th Congressional District after coming close in 2014.
Iowa (6 electoral votes)
Trump has a better than even chance of winning here. Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Grassley will be easily re-elected and Republican Reps. David Young and Rod Blum are both expected to survive close races.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Clinton should win here. The Senate race, once thought easy for Democrats, has become more of a question mark in recent days. The final Marquette University Law School poll is just one demonstrating that Democrats’ last-minute panic over the candidacy of former Sen. Russ Feingold was not unfounded. Still, he is favored to defeat Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in their rematch. A Johnson win would come as a big surprise and signal that Democrats probably won’t take Senate control.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
If Trump doesn’t win Pennsylvania, then this is a must-win for him. But the turnout numbers so far — Colorado is a vote-by-mail state — look very grim for him. Darryl Glenn, the Republican challenging the unpopular Sen. Michael Bennet, will lose.
Nebraska (5 electoral votes)
Trump will carry the state and at least four of its electoral votes.
One of the GOP’s few House pickup opportunities this year (aside from those created by redistricting) is in the same Omaha-based 2nd District. It could conceivably swing the fifth electoral vote to Clinton.
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
Among the races Democrats really have to win if they want to contend for House control is the 3rd District contest between Jay Sidie and Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder. Trump should easily win the state and Republican Sen. Jerry Moran will cruise to victory.
Louisiana (8 electoral votes)
Trump will romp here, but the more interesting result will be the runoff-bound U.S. Senate race. State Treasurer John Kennedy, R, is favored to finish with a plurality, but the real question is whether two Republicans make the runoff.
Second place is close, between Foster Campbell, a Democrat, or Rep. Charles Boustany, a Republican.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Clinton should win here. Former Gov. Gary Johnson‘s disappointing, below-expectations finish here in the presidential race will put an exclamation point on the Libertarian Party’s missed silver-platter opportunity of 2016.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Trump faded in the polls late in Arizona, but he will probably come out on top. Sen. John McCain, R, should survive a credible challenge by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D. No House seats are expected to change hands.
Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota (9 electoral votes)
Trump will carry all three, and no surprises are expected.
10 p.m. Eastern
Utah (6 electoral votes)
This one could get interesting, because it’s the one state that Evan McMullin has a realistic chance of winning. Trump will probably win instead. A victory by Republican Rep. Mia Love would be another sign that Democrats are not taking the House.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Clinton is favored. The Senate race should be closer than the Trump-Clinton pairing. A win by Rep. Joe Heck, R, would give the Republicans their only pickup for the cycle, and could possibly save their Senate majority. A win by Catherine Cortez Masto means Democrats protect all of their seats successfully.
Rep. Cresent Hardy, R, who scored an unlikely victory in the 4th District in 2014, will likely lose a Democratic-leaning seat that Republicans had little business holding in the first place.
Montana (3 electoral votes)
Trump will win, as will at-large Rep. Ryan Zinke, R.
11 p.m. Eastern
Idaho (4 electoral votes)
McMullin could make a strong showing in the Gem State, but Trump will win, as will Republicans up and down the ballot.
Oregon, Washington (19 electoral votes)
Clinton all the way. Democrats will retain Washington’s governor’s mansion by a wide margin.
California (55 electoral votes)
Clinton will easily win here. Beyond that, a number of Republican congressmen are in danger. Reps. Jeff Denham, Darrell Issa, and Steve Knight are all in toss-up races. Democrats will keep Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat, given that the contest is a runoff between two Democrats.
12 a.m. Eastern
Alaska (3 electoral votes)
It would be ironic indeed if a loss in Alaska somehow cost Trump the presidency, but this is unlikely either way — it is hard to find a realistic scenario where its three electoral votes are decisive. He should carry the state, even though some late polls suggest he might not. Rep. Don Young, the longest-serving Republican in the House, will probably win as usual, but it could be close.
1 a.m. Eastern
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
Clinton wins. Night over.
