The married-with-children party vs. the single-and-childless party

Published September 26, 2025 5:47am ET



More than any other issue, family formation is fast becoming the defining factor between Democrats and Republicans. As an Institute for Family Studies report recently showed, the higher the support for President Donald Trump in any one county, the higher the fertility rate was likely to be in that county.

Specifically, the top 20% of counties ranked by support for Trump had birth rates almost 10% higher than the national average, while the top 20% of counties ranked by support for former Vice President Kamala Harris had birth rates more than 15% below the national average.

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