The beginning of President Donald Trump‘s second term dismayed the Republican Party’s hawkish wing. In their view, Trump’s conciliatory stance on Russia undermined key allies, weakened deterrence, and rewarded a ruthless dictator for waging an illegal and immoral war. This diminished the United States’s global leadership, the maintenance of which is among its central priorities.
The culmination of their early-term dismay came when Trump and Vice President JD Vance dressed down Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a February 28 Oval Office meeting. Meant to end with the signing of the Ukraine–U.S. Mineral Resources Agreement, the meeting instead ended suddenly following a fiery exchange between Zelensky and Vance over Ukraine’s perceived lack of gratitude.
The spectacle marked a low point in Ukraine-U.S. relations and significantly dimmed the prospects of a robust partnership under Trump. In the aftermath of the meeting, the Trump administration suspended the provision of intelligence and military aid to Ukraine. Russian officials and the GOP’s ascendant isolationist wing cheered, particularly over the contributions of Vance, the administration’s most outspoken critic of U.S. involvement in the war.
But in the months since, the Trump administration has undergone a seismic shift on the war in Ukraine. In May, Trump called Putin “crazy” on Truth Social following his bombing campaigns in Kyiv and Odesa. And then at a July Cabinet meeting, Trump bluntly claimed that he was “not happy with Putin” for his barbarity and intransigence.
Trump’s best efforts to charm and cajole Putin also came up short. A pair of high-level summits, including the August peace summit in Alaska, failed to deliver even Trump’s minimum expectation of a temporary ceasefire, while Putin enjoyed the prestige of a red carpet welcome on U.S. soil. At every turn, Trump extended his hand and pushed for a negotiated peace, only for Putin to sabotage his efforts. Trump, who once naively believed he could charm Putin into a quick deal, now appears to see Putin for the former KGB foreign intelligence officer he is.
Trump’s Ukraine pivot crystallized on Tuesday following a meeting with Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly.
“After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia,” Trump posted on Truth Social, “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
Trump also explicitly stated that NATO member countries should shoot down Russian aircraft should they violate NATO airspace.
The stunning shift seemed to catch even Zelensky himself off guard, and possibly even Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who just hours earlier publicly supported a negotiated end to the war rather than a Ukrainian military victory.
The turn sent the GOP’s hawks into a state of jubilation.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called the move a “bold and necessary shift,” while Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) called it, “music to our ears” and Mitt Romney a “monumental realignment.”
VOTERS DON’T TRUST DEMOCRATS TO RUN A LEMONADE STAND
Neither side, however, should celebrate or despair too soon. Trump shares neither side’s ideological commitments. If his nearly five years as president have proven anything, it’s that he’s not ideological by nature — and this is especially true in the realm of foreign policy. Though he has demonstrated a naive overconfidence in his diplomatic abilities, he is a realist and a pragmatist, adjusting his use of leverage in ways consistent with shifting circumstances.
The result pleases the hawks today, but it could very well please the isolationists tomorrow should circumstances shift.
