Phase two of Israel-Hamas deal requires Trump’s patient fortitude

What has already been accomplished is a big deal. The long-suffering hostages are now home, a bloody war has been suspended, and the Middle East has a new opening to pursue a more peaceful future.

Still, implementing the elements of the second phase of Trump’s agreement is going to be a big challenge. Hamas, in particular, will attempt to obstruct real progress on outstanding problems. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is thus also likely to resist withdrawing military forces to Gaza’s periphery and maintaining the ceasefire. Trump will have to leverage a skillful balance of pressure and patience if he is to give the second phase a shot at success.

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The most challenging problem to resolve is that of Hamas’s disarmament. Absent Hamas’s relinquishing of its core weapon stockpiles and its suspension of political-military operations, Israel will have no choice but to maintain a military presence inside Gaza and resume military operations against Hamas forces therein.

We must not forget that Hamas’s disarmament is both a joint moral and strategic imperative for Israel. Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, atrocities against Israel took 1,195 lives and saw 251 others taken hostage. Were this attack applied population-proportionately against the United States, the Oct. 7 death toll would have amounted to more than 43,000 Americans. Put simply, Hamas’s continued existence as a meaningful political-military actor is incompatible with Israel’s sense of sovereignty and justice.

Hamas doesn’t see things this way. The group agreed to release its remaining hostages, not only because it found itself finally isolated by everyone, including its patrons in Turkey and Qatar. But that was yesterday. Today, Hamas is loath to surrender its weapons. The group’s raison d’être centers on what its members believe is a mission from God to seize the entirety of Israel and displace it with a Palestinian emirate under Sharia law. These theological considerations are imbued with Hamas’s particularly visceral antisemitism. Getting Hamas to surrender its war on Israel isn’t going to be easy.

We’re already seeing signs that Hamas doesn’t intend to demobilize in support of Trump’s pledged new “golden age” for Gaza. Emphasizing its desire to retain control over Gaza, the terrorist group is now eliminating possible political rivals to consolidate its power base. Hamas is also plainly testing how Israel and others will respond to its failure to hand over the bodies of Israeli hostages who have died in its custody.

In turn, it should be clear why Israel cannot be expected to withdraw its forces from Gaza until Hamas is neutered. That said, Trump must give negotiations time to progress.

Consider that American national security interests are now directly connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Having assured America’s Arab allies that it will do everything feasible to maintain the ceasefire, were Israel to launch new military actions quickly in response to Hamas’s slow-rolling on disarmament, America’s own interests would be jeopardized. The U.S. has very significant economic, state-security, and counterterrorism equities with key allies such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

This can’t mean that Hamas gets an open-ended pass to play games. On the contrary, Trump should support renewed Israeli military action if Hamas does not immediately return the bodies of deceased hostages it is known to possess. That was an agreed-upon stipulation of the first phase of this agreement. But if Hamas does complete this transfer, Trump should then adopt a more patient perspective on negotiations. He should make clear to Netanyahu that, absent new Hamas/Hamas-affiliated terrorist attacks on Israeli forces, he will expect patient diplomacy toward resolving the stipulations in the second phase.

The patience cannot be limitless, of course. A few weeks from now, if there has yet to be any progress toward Hamas disarmament, Trump should support limited Israeli ground force operations to seize Hamas’s weapons stocks and its supervising personnel. If there is still no progress toward the end of this year, Israel will have to recommence large-scale ground combat operations.

Even then, however, the employment of Israeli air power must only be reserved for situations in which significant Gazan civilian casualties can be avoided, or in the aftermath of Hamas attacks on Israeli interests. Yes, Hamas’s use of civilians as human shields is a despicable reflection of the group’s ideology. But too much civilian suffering has occurred in Gaza. And if the guns remain silent, then we should be wary of rushed action, which risks their resumed firing. To be clear, if Hamas or its partners launch attacks on Israeli interests, Trump should support robust Israeli military reprisals. If Hamas believes it can get away with both having its peace cake and eating Israeli lives, it will do so.

This approach should satisfy Israel’s need to corral Hamas with its forces in Gaza and also buy time to build regional momentum toward getting Hamas disarmed. This strategy is best placed to generate political space with which to develop the international body that Trump’s plan proposes will provide transitional governance and security in post-war Gaza.

At the same time, Trump should also hold fast to his recent warning to Netanyahu that he will not support new annexation efforts in the West Bank.

Netanyahu will now be tempted to order these annexations to placate right-wing Cabinet members who are deeply skeptical of Trump’s peace agreement. The problem is that any annexations would undermine both Palestinian and Arab allied support for the peace process. They would also undermine U.S. national security interests. West Bank annexation efforts are seen by Palestinians and Arab allies to degrade any credible aspirations for a future Palestinian state. Indeed, that’s why Trump included a reference to these Palestinian statehood aspirations in his peace plan and why annexations are favored by the Israeli Right as a means to obstruct those aspirations. Via the association of America’s close alliance with Israel, the annexations also provide propaganda for Islamist-terrorist recruitment and operations against U.S. interests.

The key point is this. If, over the next few weeks, progress is being made in terms of a sustained ceasefire, Israeli security, and an improved situation for Gazan civilians, America’s Arab allies will have a growing appetite to support the international governing body and increase pressure on Hamas. The success of the second phase need not require that every Hamas rifle be stripped out of Gaza, but rather that the vast majority of Hamas assault rifles — and especially rockets, sniper rifles, anti-tank weapons, and explosives — be secured. And that every major Hamas leader and fighter either relinquishes support for their organization or departs Gaza entirely. This will neuter Hamas as a viable actor, satisfying Israeli security interests and providing avenues for alternate, more peace-minded Palestinian political aspirations under the new governing authority.

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To borrow a Navy SEALs saying, “The only easy day was yesterday.”

Trump has secured a landmark success in getting the Israeli hostages home, the fighting suspended, and all Middle Eastern parties focused on a more positive political trajectory. But just as Hamas cannot be allowed to survive as more than a shell of its current self, Trump must do everything possible to buy time for this fragile peace. With time and patience, the first phase’s success can be translated into a triumph in the second phase.