President Donald Trump should use Sanae Takaichi’s accession as Japan‘s new prime minister to reset relations with our close Pacific ally.
Trump has undermined trust between the United States and Japan by imposing 15% tariffs on Japanese exports to the United States, far greater than Japan’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports. This has damaged Japanese public sentiment toward the U.S., risking the trust that underpins our defensive alliance. This trust might soon be priceless.
Consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan: If Japan balks at blocking U.S. bases on its soil in defense of Taiwan, Beijing’s odds of victory would skyrocket. Trump should strike a new bargain with Takaichi, offering tariff relief in exchange for Japan’s sustained increases in defense spending, deeper defensive collaboration, and stronger economic ties.
The ingredients for success are clear.
For one, Takaichi appears to share Trump’s appetite for bold policies. A nationalist conservative with a clear eye toward the threats posed by China, Takaichi has also moved quickly to bolster Japan’s defensive readiness.
Nor does Takaichi hesitate in emphasizing the importance of her country’s American alliance. Speaking this week, Takaichi observed, “The Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of our nation’s diplomacy and security. I believe Japan is an indispensable partner for the United States, whether viewed from the perspective of the U.S. strategy toward China or its Indo-Pacific strategy.”
Unlike many allies, the prime minister is putting her money where her mouth is. On Friday, Takaichi announced that Japan would speed up increases to its defense budget. Tokyo will now aim to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense a year earlier than planned, reaching that expenditure ratio by March 2026. Takaichi noted, “In the region around Japan, military activities and other actions from our neighbors China, North Korea, and Russia are causing grave concerns.” Preparing for Trump’s visit to Japan next week, the prime minister pledged to bring the historic U.S.-Japan alliance to “new heights.”
Takaichi also benefits from a new coalition member, the Japan Innovation Party, which shares her aspirations for Japan to take on a more robust defense strategy. To that end, the new government is rewriting key defense planning documents to enable even greater defense spending and a more proactive stance toward international security challenges. Takaichi gave a clear signal of intent here by remotely joining a conference in London on Friday to support Ukraine’s defensive needs.
Trump should reinforce these efforts. There will be a temptation for the new government to avoid the kind of defense spending boosts that are truly necessary for Japan to address China’s threat. While 2% of GDP defense spending is a start, for example, China’s unprecedented challenge requires that Japan move toward at least 3.5% of GDP defense spending in the coming years. Unfortunately, some Japanese officials appear reluctant to adopt these big changes.
Take Takaichi’s new foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi. Addressing defense spending, Motegi has stated, “What’s important is not the amount or the GDP ratio but what’s in it.” This is disingenuous. While it matters greatly what defense budgets are actually allocated toward, it should be obvious that the higher the amount of defense spending, the more of what is actually needed can be bought. Conversely, the lower the spending, the less that can be bought.
Dragging Japan out of its “we have time to prepare” mindset is no small concern.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his People’s Liberation Army to be ready to conquer Taiwan by 2027. Xi views the restoration of Taiwan under the Chinese Communist flag as perhaps the key test of his destiny. Many U.S. military analysts believe he will order an invasion of the island democracy before 2030. And such an attack would almost certainly involve strikes against the Japanese island of Okinawa, home to major U.S. military bases. If Taiwan falls to China, Beijing will hold sway over the economic and security character of the Western Pacific. American allies will be less free. The U.S. and its allies will be less secure and less prosperous. And countries around the world will sense that the day of U.S. leadership is over, offering fealty to Xi’s authoritarian communist agenda.
VANCE CALLS KNESSET VOTE ON WEST BANK AN ‘INSULT’ TO TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
Meeting Takaichi in Tokyo next week, Trump should thus deliver a clear offer of mutual benefit. Offering a reset in relations, he should make clear that he wants to see Japan do much more now to help the U.S. defend security and prosperity in the Pacific. If Takaichi agrees, then Trump should reward that action with a fresh look at his tariff regime.
Trump forged one of his closest political friendships with the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Now he has a chance to do the same with Abe’s ideological protégé.
