President Donald Trump is coming under pressure to deliver on his most notable outstanding domestic policy campaign promise: decreasing inflation.
While his outstanding foreign policy promise of ending the Russia–Ukraine war is unlikely to have political consequences for the 2026 midterm elections, the same cannot be said for Trump’s response to inflation.
To that end, Trump did not welcome September’s consumer price index report on Friday, which was delayed by nine days because of the federal government shutdown, the longest full shutdown in history.
The report by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the consumer price index increased by 0.3% during September in comparison to August, rising 3% in contrast to last September.
The White House on Friday underscored that the report’s findings, including core CPI that excludes food and energy, were below market expectations before the Federal Reserve‘s Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to discuss whether to decrease interest rates again. The Federal Reserve will have to make that decision without other government data because of the shutdown.
“This is good news for American families, and it’s a shame the Democrats are using them as ‘leverage’ to fund healthcare for illegal aliens,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Washington Examiner, alluding to Democrats’ demands to end the shutdown. “Democrats choosing to keep the government closed will likely result in no October inflation report, which will leave businesses, markets, families, and the Federal Reserve in disarray.”
When pressed on how inflation increasing below market expectations does not mean prices did not rise at all, the White House cited examples of where prices decreased. For example, while gas prices increased during September by 4.2%, they have decreased by 0.5% over the last year.
However, energy prices more generally increased by 1.5% in September and 2.8% during the year. Food prices also increased by 0.2% and 3.1% during the same time periods, respectively.
“Your story should note that real wages are up in addition to the prices that have fallen and inflation that has cooled,” a White House official told the Washington Examiner.
Friday’s inflation report coincided with the University of Michigan releasing its final Consumer Sentiment Index for October. In that report, the university found consumer confidence decreased from 55 to 53.6, a five-month low and below market expectations of 54.5.
“Retail sales [and] consumer spending data – which is the ‘hard’ data vs ‘soft’ consumer sentiment data – have been robust as well,” the White House told the Washington Examiner when asked for a reaction.
Regardless, Democrats already have a slight average edge of about 3 percentage points in early generic congressional ballot polling, according to RealClearPolitics.
Democrats’ advantage is driven, in part, by respondent dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic and inflation policies. His average approval is net negative 15 points for the economy and net negative 25 points for inflation. Trump’s problem is further complicated by polling finding that, on average, a majority consider the country to be on the wrong track, 55% to 39%.
Democratic strategist Colin Seeberger emphasized that data, contending that Trump’s “economic agenda is killing jobs and driving up the cost of basic needs, like healthcare, groceries, and utilities.”
“At the same time, his tariff and tax policies leave all but the top 1% of households worse off than when he took office,” the senior adviser for communications at the Center of American Progress told the Washington Examiner. “Donald Trump promised to lower prices and help the working class get ahead, but he’s done nothing to deliver on those promises while using the presidency to enrich himself and his billionaire buddies. That’s a tough sales pitch to take to voters.”
Regarding tariffs, Trump on Thursday night reignited his trade war with Canada over an anti-tariff TV advertisement paid for by the Canadian state of Ontario that used, allegedly without permission, excerpts of a radio address by Ronald Reagan, during which the late president criticized duties and other protectionist policies.
“The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs,” Trump wrote on social media in one of two posts, though the address was only edited.
Trump added: “They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”
The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on Nov. 5 regarding whether Trump has the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada over his concerns related to their perceived lack of action with respect to fentanyl trafficking, in addition to his so-called Liberation Day tariffs.
Trump has been increasingly vocal about the case, describing it as “THE MOST IMPORTANT… EVER.” Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated the administration will pursue other authorities under which to impose the tariffs.
Canada is the only Group of Seven country not to have a trade deal with the U.S., which in turn deals with Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as sectoral duties on autos and lumber, that are not exempted under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Trump negotiated during his first term. That arrangement will be under review next year.
With Canada being the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner, other pressure points in the trade negotiations include those regarding energy, digital, agriculture, critical minerals, and labor.
The White House on Friday defended itself from criticism regarding the political optics of Trump not engaging in trade negotiations as inflation increases.
“Canadians were negotiating to drop the 35% tariff we have on them, so terminating negotiations simply means [the] 35% tariff on non-USMCA products will stay in place,” an official told the Washington Examiner. “Clearly those tariffs haven’t fueled runaway inflation as today’s report further underscores.”
Trump on Friday departed the White House for Asia with the hope of returning with a trade deal with Malaysia, and even China, in addition to more details regarding agreements already struck with Japan and South Korea.
But Trump’s other social media posts on Friday simultaneously demonstrated his defensiveness regarding his tariffs amid the inflation report.
“THE STOCK MARKET IS STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE BECAUSE OF TARIFFS!” he wrote.
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But 12 months before the 2026 elections, Republican strategist Cesar Conda, while agreeing tariffs are “still showing little impact as goods inflation hasn’t materialized yet,” argued, “September’s CPI increase was driven mainly by rising gas and food prices, which are felt every day by middle- and working-class Americans.”
“The Trump administration and congressional Republicans must continue to address these specific costs, including the cost of housing, even as the overall inflation trajectory improves,” the former Bush-Cheney White House economic policy adviser and a founding partner of lobbying firm Navigators Global told the Washington Examiner.
