CIA DIRECTOR ‘TRUMP IS RIGHT’: President Donald Trump prompted a lot of head scratching in the arms control community with his assertion on the CBS program 60 Minutes that both Russia and China were conducting underground tests of nuclear weapons and therefore he was ordering the Pentagon to begin testing our weapons “on an equal basis.”
Most experts noted that Russia and China ended underground tests in the 1990s, and North Korea’s last test was in 2017. But citing a post on X by CIA director John Ratcliffe — in which he said Trump was “right” and referenced a 2020 Wall Street Journal story about possible “small nuclear tests” by China — Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said Ratcliffe told him that Russia and China were not adhering to the letter of the voluntary nuclear testing moratorium.
“After consultations with Director Ratcliffe and his team, they have confirmed to me that the CIA assesses that both Russia and China have conducted super-critical nuclear weapons tests in excess of the U.S. zero-yield standard,” Cotton posted on X. “These tests are not historic and are part of their nuclear modernization programs.”
Nuclear Weapons experts were quick to weigh in, suggesting Trump was likely referring to small nuclear tests designed to assure the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons, and which are allowed by the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, so long as they don’t produce nuclear explosions.
Russia, China, and the U.S. have not ratified the treaty, but have been voluntarily abiding by the testing protocols.
A GRAY ZONE: “Trump was likely referring to very low-yield or below-detectable threshold testing (supercritical, explosion-yielding), as evidenced by him saying the public doesn’t know about it and it happens deep underground,” Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, posted on X. “He may hear about this in his intel briefs.”
“All nuclear explosions are supercritical,” Jeffrey Lewis, a distinguished scholar of global security at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, posted on X. “He probably means ‘hydronuclear’ — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release.”
“As an advocate of a zero-yield CTBT, I also happen to think such experiments are a technical gray zone. US weaponeers never believed these were ‘explosions’ although that’s how the US has chosen to interpret the CTBT,” Lewis said.
Trump has “created a storm of confusion and concern by announcing he had directed Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons,” Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists posted on X. “Cotton and others are trying to build on Trump nuke test statement to hype Chinese nuclear test experiments to create conditions for a US nuclear test.”
“[Trump’s] starting from intel reports that China/Russia have done very low yield test experiments, claims all others are testing, and doesn’t seem to know what the U.S. is doing,” Kristensen said.
“‘Might’ and ‘probably’ don’t mean they are actively doing such n-explosive tests. If this is a real concern there are more effective ways to resolve the issue,” wrote Daryl Kimball, Director of Arms Control Association.
“The right response is not for the U.S. to be the first to blow up (pun intended) the moratorium, held since the 1990s, but seek clarification on what they are doing with reciprocal insight into the US program so we don’t end up in an escalation based on fear and accusations,” suggested Corey Hinderstein, former deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, at the National Nuclear Security Administration.
WRIGHT SAYS NUCLEAR TESTS ORDERED BY TRUMP WON’T INCLUDE EXPLOSIONS
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on Thanksgiving break beginning the week of Monday, Nov. 17, and continuing through the end of the month. We’ll be back the beginning of December.
HAPPENING TODAY: SHUTDOWN BREAKS RECORD: It’s official. Today marks day 36 of the government shutdown, setting a new record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history. Neither the Republicans — who blame the Democrats for refusing to vote for a “clean” continuing resolution — nor the Democrats — who blame the Republicans for refusing to negotiate on healthcare subsidies — are showing any sign of giving in, as the lives of millions of Americans are disrupted, air travel is a mess, and federal workers are going without pay.
On his Truth Social platform, President Trump has become increasingly agitated about the refusal of Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to resort to the “nuclear option” by changing the Senate rules that require 60 votes to end a filibuster, which Democrats are using to block a vote to end the shutdown.
“TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!!!” Trump posted again last night, also blaming the shutdown for the Republicans dismal showing in the off-year elections, along with the fact that he was not on the ballot. This morning Trump is scheduled to meet with GOP senators for breakfast, before heading to Miami to speak to a forum of business leaders and global athletes.
“The Democrats are far more likely to win the Midterms, and the next Presidential Election, if we don’t do the Termination of the Filibuster,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “It will be impossible for Republicans to get Common Sense Policies done with these Crazed Democrat Lunatics being able to block everything by withholding their votes. FOR THREE YEARS, NOTHING WILL BE PASSED, AND REPUBLICANS WILL BE BLAMED.”
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BECOMES LONGEST IN US HISTORY
FRUSTRATION BOILS OVER: At what would normally be a routine confirmation hearing for lower-level Pentagon nominees, both Republican and Democratic senators railed about being given the mushroom treatment, kept in the dark, and being fed manure.
The particular target of their ire was someone who wasn’t there, Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy, who they blamed for blindsiding Congress with the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Romania on NATO’s eastern flank.
“We have already withdrawn troops or directed the withdrawal of troops from Romania, all of that done without any consultation with the Congress and any specific articulation of a national defense policy change,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI).
“Members and staff of this committee have struggled to receive information from the policy office and have not been able to consult in a meaningful way with the shop, either on the National Defense Strategy or a review of the U.S. military’s global force posture,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), chairman of the Armed Services Committee. “The situation needs to improve if we are to — to craft the best defense policy.”
“The guy you’re going to go work for has been really bad on this, the worst in the administration,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) said in an exchange with Austin Dahmer, nominee to be the assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and forces. “Man, I can’t even get a response, and we’re on your team.”
Citing five instances where Congress was left in the dark about major issues concerning Ukraine, Australia, NATO, and Japan, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said, “It just seems like there’s this, like, pigpen-like mess coming out of the policy shop.”
“Why do you think it is that there’s so many controversies emanating out of the policy shop and not these other offices in the department?” Cotton asked Dahmer.
“Senator, I would like to understand that myself,” Dahmer replied. “I mean, as you, I think, just indicated, there’s a lot of fake news out there, there’s a lot of inaccurate reporting.”
16 STRIKES, 67 DEAD: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced yesterday the 16th deadly strike on a suspected drug smuggling boat, this one in the eastern Pacific, with two fatalities, bringing the death toll to 67.
“Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was involved in illicit narcotics smuggling, transiting along a known narco-trafficking route, and carrying narcotics,” Hegseth said in his post on X. “We will find and terminate EVERY vessel with the intention of trafficking drugs to America to poison our citizens. Protecting the homeland is our TOP priority. NO cartel terrorist stands a chance against the American military.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump’s threat of military intervention in Nigeria likely a diplomatic pressure tactic
Washington Examiner: Border Patrol in rare position to prepare for future amid illegal immigration recession
Washington Examiner: Thune eyes longer stopgap funding bill as shutdown drags on
Washington Examiner: Jim Banks to propose bill to use Pentagon to boost domestic rare earths production
Washington Examiner: Judge extends block on Portland National Guard deployment through Friday
Washington Examiner: Trump administration argues Caribbean strikes do not meet requirements to be regulated by War Powers Resolution
Washington Examiner: Zelensky says Trump will work to end Hungarian veto on Ukraine entering EU
Washington Examiner: Trump nominates Jared Isaacman as NASA chief months after withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Byron York Opinion: Dick Cheney’s complicated legacy
Washington Examiner: Social media reacts to Dick Cheney’s death
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: A House of Dynamite gets a lot wrong. A lot
Bloomberg: US Space Force to Use Three Weapons to Jam Chinese Satellites Via Remote Control
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: Space Force Must Take ‘Decisive’ Steps Toward Dynamic Operations
New York Times: US Seeks Two-Year UN Mandate for Gaza Stabilization Force
AP: Hegseth praises South Korea’s plans to raise its military spending and boost defense capabilities
The War Zone: China’s New Tailless Stealth Fighters Both Appear at Secretive Test Base
DefenseScoop: Nominee for Pentagon strategist outlines approach for stymieing potential Chinese attacks on Taiwan
Breaking Defense: NATO Must Innovate Like Ukraine or Risk Losing a Fight with Russia: Swedish Official
Defense News: Belgium Suspects ‘Spy Operation’ in Drone Flight Near Nuclear Air Base
Wall Street Journal: How Elite Agents Use High-Risk Military Tactics on Civilians in Chicago
Defense One: At NSA, a Leadership Vacuum and Staff Cuts Threaten Operations and Morale
San Antonio Express-News: Why retired generals are staying silent about Trump: They’re scared.
AP: Iranians commemorate anniversary of 1979 US embassy takeover at time of tensions
Air & Space Forces Magazine: General Atomics Flies Second CCA, Announces New Ground-Attack Drone
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Draft Memo Offers First Look at Pentagon Acquisition Reforms
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wilsbach’s 1st Call to Airmen: ‘At Our Core, We Fly and Fix Aircraft’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Issues New Mustache, Sideburn Standards
Foreign Policy: What Does Trump Think Nuclear Testing Is?
Military Strategy Magazine: Nuclear Deterrence Reconsidered: The Emerging Threat of Limited Nuclear Warfare
AP: Chinese astronauts face delayed return to Earth after spacecraft possibly hit by small debris
AP: NASA takes one step closer to launching quiet supersonic jets
AP: Dick Cheney, one of the most powerful and polarizing vice presidents in US history, dies at 84
Stars and Stripes: Military police officer charged with murder in alleged DUI crash in San Diego
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 5
8:30 a.m. — Business Council for International Understanding discussion: “Emerging security challenges in NATO, especially on the Eastern Flank and in the Baltic and Arctic regions,” with Italian Air Force Gen. Aurelio Colagrande, deputy commander, NATO Allied Command Transformation http://www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events
2:30 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion: “Containment Redux: Persian Gulf War Lessons from Iraq for U.S. Strategy Toward Iran,” with Elliott Abrams, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. special representative for Iran; Reuel Marc Gerecht, FDD resident scholar and former CIA Iranian targets officer; Kenneth Pollack, vice president for policy, Middle East Institute and former NSC director for Persian Gulf affairs; and Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director FDD Iran Program https://www.fdd.org/events/2025/11/05/containment-redux
5 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A next-generation agenda for South Korea-US-Australia security cooperation,” with Kester Abbott, research associate, University of Sydney U.S. Studies Centre; Hannah Heewon Seo, events administrator, Australia Institute; Eunju Oh, researcher, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses; Markus Garlauskas, director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Indo-Pacific Initiative; and Lauren Gilbert, deputy director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Indo-Pacific Security Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-next-generation-agenda
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 6
10:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Letting New START Expire: How the Nuclear Arms Treaty Undermines American Security,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, director, Hudson Institute Keystone Defense Initiative; and Robert Peters, Heritage senior research fellow for strategic deterrence https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/letting-new-start-expire
11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute forum: “The Military Balance in the Indo-Pacific, with and Without Taiwan,” with Jonathan Caverley, visiting senior fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies; Evan Montgomery, vice president for research and studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; and Evan Sankey, Cato policy analyst https://www.cato.org/events/military-balance-indo-pacific-without-taiwan
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 7
10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: “Strategic Stockpile Stewardship: A Retrospective and Forward Look at U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” with Don Cook, former deputy administrator for defense programs , National Nuclear Security https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/strategic-stockpile-stewardship
