Democrats have not convinced the public that they are able to beat President Trump in 2020.
A new poll from Monmouth University found that an overwhelming majority of people, approximately two-thirds, believes that Trump will win reelection this year, with only 28% feeling otherwise. However, the poll also found that only 42% of voters believe the incumbent president should win reelection. Support for Trump’s reelection has steadily grown since September 2019, after the House of Representatives announced its impeachment proceedings.
In late September, only 39% supported Trump’s reelection. Before his acquittal, that number increased to 41%, and, as the campaign continued, Democrats have comparatively less confidence in their chances to win the presidency than Republicans. Only 11% of Democrats say their nominee will “definitely beat” Trump, while 44% believe he or she will “probably” defeat Trump. By contrast, 59% of Republicans say a Trump 2020 victory is “definite,” and 34% say it is “probable.”
“While most voters want to see Trump turned out of office, his steady ratings through the entire impeachment process and memories of how 2016 turned out suggest that few are willing to bet against him, and the Democratic nomination kickoff in Iowa did not exactly inspire confidence in the party’s ability to find someone who can take on the president,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Optimism in the election has also increased 9 points since 2016, rising from 56% to 65%. Approximately 86% of Republicans and over half of Democrats and independents share that sentiment.
The poll also placed independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the lead among those running for the Democratic nomination, rising from 23% to 26% in one month. According to Monmouth, momentum for the Biden campaign has plummeted, falling from 30% before the Iowa caucuses to 16%.
