Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has closed in on Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D-NY) lead in a new poll less than one week into the Republican candidate’s 2026 bid for New York governor.
Stefanik trails the incumbent by three points in a tight 46-43% margin, according to a poll released by JL Partners on Wednesday. The gap sits within the survey’s margin of error. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided between the two. Hochul’s three-point lead holds when she runs against an unspecified Republican candidate.
With the minimal lead, the pollster’s findings suggest the gubernatorial race may be closer than previously anticipated.
While Stefanik has fresh enthusiasm behind her bid as an advantage, Hochul is working against her dismal approval ratings one year out from the general election. Fifty-four percent of likely voters disapprove of Hochul, compared to 40% who approve.
Further dampening her reelection odds, 18% of voters said they would definitely vote for Hochul. However, a whopping 55% said it was time for someone new, giving Republicans an opportunity to take control of the New York governor’s mansion.
Stefanik launched her campaign on Friday, taking aim at Hochul’s policies and declaring herself the presumptive Republican nominee. New York’s Republican primary remains uncontested so far, but Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said last week he would consider entering the race.
The poll shows Stefanik appeals more to Republican voters than Blakeman, with 74% of respondents voting for Stefanik and only 5% backing Blakeman in the GOP primary.
The pro-Trump congresswoman is also more well-known than the Long Island politician. Sixty-one percent of likely Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Stefanik, while the same percentage of voters have never heard of Blakeman.
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When asked about a hypothetical matchup between Hochul and Blakeman, likely general election voters preferred to vote for the sitting governor by a 47-36% margin.
JL Partners conducted two separate polls from Nov. 9 to 10: the first among a sample size of likely congressional election voters in New York, and the second among a sample size of 400 likely Republican primary voters in New York. The first poll had a 4.4% margin of error, and the second poll had a 4.9% margin of error.
