The White House is breathing a sigh of relief after a better-than-expected September jobs report, but economists remain concerned about the mixed economic picture.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warmly welcomed the news that 119,000 new jobs were added to the economy in September, more than double the number expected by the market.
“In stark contrast to the disastrous Biden economy, almost all of these new jobs were in the private sector and went to American-born workers instead of illegal aliens,” Leavitt wrote Thursday on social media, referring to former President Joe Biden. “Wages for workers are continuing to rise, a reversal of the Biden years where private sector wages declined by about $3,000 because of the Democrats’ inflation crisis.”
At the same time, Leavitt did not mention September’s unemployment rate of 4.4%, an increase from August and July’s unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.2%, respectively, though some experts attribute that number to 470,000 new people entering the labor market. New jobless claims also decreased last week by 8,000 to 220,000.
The contradictory data have contributed to the mixed picture that concerns economists one year before the 2026 midterm elections. The economy is most likely to be a crucial issue for voters.
Acting Heritage Foundation economic policy studies director Richard Stern described September’s jobs report as “good news,” but underscored “uncertainty” in the economy as President Donald Trump and the White House try to puncture poor public perception.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty that’s been going on, that is not showing up in the jobs report, that is showing up in where investment flows are going,” Stern told the Washington Examiner, alluding to “real growth and expansion” investment as opposed to stock market investment.
That uncertainty was created, in part, by the time it took for Congress to pass Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, now rebranded the “Tax Cut Bill,” in addition to the time it will take to implement all of its provisions, some of which are different from what the market anticipated, according to Stern. That uncertainty has also been exacerbated by Trump’s tariff policy and high interest rates.
“We’re still in the shadow of massive Biden regulation, of the distortions to the economy during COVID and the government response to it, and then the tariff uncertainty and, of course, the [Federal Reserve] has been in the middle of all of this,” Stern said. “The Fed, ultimately, is the one who decides how affordable certain things are to the American public, and, ultimately, the Fed is deciding how much of these burdens you feel as inflation versus high interest rates.”
“A lot of the monetary inflation has happened because of the Fed printing money to accommodate federal deficits,” he added. “The affordability thing is a little more of a long-term thing and, frankly, requires a lot of fiscal discipline the Congress has not demonstrated.”
American Enterprise Institute economic senior fellow Desmond Lachman agreed that September’s jobs report is “good news,” but “old information” after the record-breaking 43-day government shutdown. Companies, meanwhile, including Amazon, American Airlines, CNN, Dow, General Motors, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Procter & Gamble, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Verizon, and The Walt Disney Co., all announced layoffs.
For Lachman, September’s job reports emphasized “that the economy was on track up until then,” but he did not predict the Fed would reduce interest rates next month.
“If you look at what the market [is] telling you, they’re saying that there’s only a 30% … chance that the Federal [Reserve will cut rates],” Lachman told the Washington Examiner.
Regarding Trump’s efforts to address affordability, an issue that has been at the forefront of voters’ minds since this month’s off-year elections, the Fed easing interest rates would make borrowing cheaper for consumers and relieve pressure on 10-year Treasury bond yields.
“So he’s going to get no break on affordability from that,” Lachman said.
Unlikely to ‘change anybody’s mind’
But for Lachman, regarding the more general public perception of the economy, September’s jobs report will at least not make the malaise worse.
“They’ll go more of what they’re feeling,” he said. “It looks like what’s happening is you’ve got a two-tier economy. Those people who are wealthy and who own stocks, they’re feeling flush with money, but everybody else is struggling and they’re being a lot more careful with that.”
New York University economics professor Mark Gertler is of the same opinion that September’s jobs report demonstrated the economy is “not rapidly deteriorating,” but that it is unlikely to “change anybody’s mind” regarding economic public perception, particularly because it could be a “make-up” to prior jobs reports. August’s job report, for example, found that the economy lost 4,000 jobs.
“We’re going to need more data to see exactly how things are playing out, and I think the inflation numbers should be very informative,” Gertler told the Washington Examiner.
To that end, October’s consumer price index report, originally due on Nov. 13, has been delayed because of the shutdown.
The shutdown has also delayed October’s jobs report, which was originally due on Nov. 7. That report will now be partially published on Dec. 16, in addition to November’s jobs report. October’s jobs report will only include job creation data, not its unemployment counterpart. That is because the survey to calculate unemployment was not conducted while the government was closed.
That means the Fed will have less information when it meets on Dec. 9 and 10 to decide whether to change the country’s current interest rate of 3.75%-4%. Trump has ramped up his pressure on the Fed to lower rates, as he, in turn, comes under pressure regarding affordability. Minutes from the independent body’s last meeting, circulated this week, indicate that rates may not move.
During his appearance this week at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C., Trump reiterated his desire to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, telling the crowd Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had dissuaded him from doing so before Powell’s term expires next year.
“The only thing Scott’s blowing it on is the Fed,” Trump said. “The rates are too high, Scott, and if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m gonna fire your a**.”
During the same speech, Trump expressed his frustration with repeated complaints about affordability since Democratic gubernatorial nominees won in landslide victories earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia.
“We’re also making incredible strides to make America affordable again,” he said. “That’s the new word that they’re using. ‘Affordability.'”
Regardless, Trump’s average approval rating regarding inflation is a net negative 26 percentage points, with 36% approving and 61% disapproving, according to RealClearPolitics. An Economist-YouGov poll this month also reported that inflation is the top concern of 27% of respondents. That number has risen from 23% in January.
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Nevertheless, Leavitt defended Trump’s economic record Thursday during her press briefing, citing the president’s “historic tax cuts and multiple big trade deals with countries around the world,” as well as his campaign commitments of “no tax on overtime,” “no tax on tips,” and “no tax on Social Security.”
“We know that Americans are still hurting from the four-decade-high inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats, but President Trump is making significant progress to fix this, and he will not stop working until he solves it,” she told reporters. “As the president recently stated, he is never satisfied.”
