Democrats are heading into the holiday season on a high note after sweeping wins in the 2025 elections and judicial blows dealt to Republicans over redistricting efforts. However, new data and analysis show that Democrats will need to do more than ride this temporary blue wave if they want to be successful in the 2026 midterm elections.
Recent polling shows Democrats are in a strong position less than a year out from next November’s elections. A Marist-PBS-NPR poll found Democrats have a 14-point lead on the generic ballot, the biggest advantage for control of Congress in eight years. Though likely an outlier, other surveys have found the party leading the generic ballot anywhere from 5 points to 9 points.
But Democrats do have to face a harsh reality: there aren’t enough seats within reach to flip that will create the sizable blue “tsunami” the party is eyeing in 2026. Projections anticipate a victorious election night for Democrats, yielding as many as 20 seats, compared to the 40 seats they scored in the 2018 midterm elections.
If Democrats were to win every seat President Donald Trump won or lost by 5 points or less, that would only give the party a gain of 14 seats, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to take back the majority, which 14 seats would more than accomplish — but it wouldn’t be considered a “wave election” in the eyes of analysts.
Democrats have their work cut out for them. A majority of wins in the last four midterm elections have come from districts that a president carried or lost by less than 5 points.
There are only four Republican incumbents who represent seats won by former Vice President Kamala Harris, and only 10 seats where Trump won by 5 points or less in the 2024 election.
The Cook Political Report predicts that Democrats will defend 38 competitive seats compared to Republicans defending 31 in 2026. A retirement from Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) gives Democrats a prime pickup opportunity.
But five Democratic seats have shifted more red: The districts held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), Jared Golden (D-ME), Don Davis (D-NC), and Greg Casar (D-TX).
Of them, Golden is the only one who is retiring, opening up an opportunity for Republicans to finally flip the seat in Maine after years of failed attempts. The rating shifts for the seats held by Casar, Davis, Gonzalez, and Kaptur can be attributed to redistricting.
Eyes are on a special election in Tennessee on Dec. 2, which will determine who will replace retired Republican Rep. Mark Green. The seat is expected to remain in Republican hands, but recent polling shifted the seat from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” The reasoning centered on Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn’s affordability agenda, as well as Democrats’ ability to historically outperform Republicans in non-presidential cycles.
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Republican Matt Van Epps received an endorsement from Trump, which helped him sail to victory in the primary. But the 2025 elections showed that a considerable number of voters, including historically blue voting blocs that trended red in 2024, are not guaranteed to stay in the GOP’s corner. So it’s possible a Trump endorsement may not be enough to rally support from the GOP’s base, which is already less likely to vote in elections where Trump’s name is not at the top of the ballot.
Recent rulings from courts in several states could boost Democrats’ chances of recapturing the House majority and keep them from having to spend considerable funds defending their normal battleground incumbents and new competitive seats drawn by gerrymandering.
A Utah judge approved a new map that gives Democrats an easy flip in Salt Lake City. In Indiana, state lawmakers issued a statement that they don’t have the votes to redraw a new map to make the House seats more favorable for Republicans. And in Texas, the state that began the redistricting race to the bottom, a three-judge panel struck down the new map that would give the GOP an extra five seats in the lower chamber.
All of this, combined with Trump’s low approval rating coming out of the record-breaking, 43-day government shutdown, should have Democrats feeling good about themselves.
“The experts and polls agree: the American public is souring on House Republicans’ broken promises,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Viet Shelton told the Washington Examiner. “People are pissed about higher prices, and voters want leaders who will fight for them, not the wealthiest few. Going into the midterms, House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, more resources, and it’s why we are favored to retake the majority.”
But Democrats are also facing some internal problems over the handling of the shutdown. Though the party put healthcare at the forefront of the political conversation, much of their base expressed disappointment or anger that, after 43 days, Democrats agreed to a funding deal with no concrete path to renewing Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of this year.
“Voters decide elections, not keyboard warrior pundits. Republicans will continue earning votes in seats across the country as we hold and grow our House majority,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella told the Washington Examiner.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is facing calls in and out of Capitol Hill to step aside as party leader, with eyes shifting to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to see whether she will primary him for his reelection in 2028.
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Party infighting was also on full display this past week, after Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) and 22 other Democrats voted to rebuke Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (D-IL) over the methods he used to retire and essentially pave the way for his chief of staff to replace him in Congress.
Though many Democrats voted to table the measure, arguing that it was a distraction from real kitchen-table issues or highlighting the damage caused by GOP policies, the House ultimately voted to rebuke García on Nov. 18.
