The GOP‘s recent shellacking in New Jersey and Virginia was not a failure of effort. Republicans had the ground game. They invested in turnout operations. They knocked on doors, built lists, and localized their messaging. Tactically, the party did the work. Strategically, however, it didn’t focus on the right voters.
In the first major election since President Donald Trump’s landslide victory and the GOP’s trifecta win last November, Republicans leaned heavily on last year’s winning strategy: coaxing low-propensity base loyalists back to the polls. Meanwhile, Democrats focused on, and won, the persuadable middle.
If Republicans want to reverse their fortunes, they must stop ceding the center to Democrats who portray themselves as moderates.
In New Jersey and Virginia, the Democratic candidates mastered a simple political trick: ignore your progressive voting record and sound like a centrist. Rightfully frustrated by more than a month of the government shutdown and missed paychecks in densely populated hubs of government workers, voters were duped by the governors-elect speaking fluently about “affordability,” “public safety,” and “women’s rights.” Their campaigns were crafted to soothe, to reassure, to signal pragmatic competence.
Yet while in office, these same women had routinely aligned with their party’s left flank on spending, open borders, green energy mandates, radical gender ideology, and more — all issues that the vast majority of voters reject. The packaging is moderate; the policy reality is not.
Republicans, meanwhile, have drifted into a self-limiting mindset: the belief that the key to victory lies in awakening a dormant army of irregular conservative voters. The thinking behind this strategy is understandable. Trump reshaped the Republican coalition by drawing large numbers of disengaged voters into the electorate.
But attempting to recreate that dynamic in every race, in every cycle, is misguided. Low-propensity voters are unpredictable by definition, and what seems to motivate their turnout is not the extensive door-knocking done by many groups, but having Trump on the ballot.
Yet even in 2024, candidates found that there were voters who would walk into the booth, vote for Trump, and walk out. Even a small percentage of them voting down ballot would have turned losses into victories. Just ask, for example, 2024 U.S. Senate candidate from Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost by 19,006 votes — in a race where Trump won by 80,103 votes.
So here’s a lesson for the 2026 midterm elections, and a key takeaway from New Jersey and Virginia: Betting heavily on low propensity turnout, in races where Trump is not personally on the ballot, is not a winning strategy. The GOP needs to persuade the middle.
That middle — independents, suburban women, and minorities — is where elections are actually decided. And right now, Democrats are steadily improving their appeal among moderate suburbanites, particularly women, who have become the decisive force in statewide elections, while Republicans knock on the wrong doors.
Some surveys show that women went for New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill by 25 points over Jack Ciattarelli and 30 points for Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears. These are huge deltas compared to just a year prior, when Republicans lost female voters by a mere 7 points — an enormous increase in support from past years.
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Reengaging the center does not require Republicans to abandon their values. To the contrary, these voters align with them on most issues — from creating safer communities, lowering energy costs and grocery bills, and reviving quality education to respecting biological reality. These are not abstract ideological debates, and 12 months ago, they were won by Republicans. The GOP cannot allow Democrats to monopolize the language of moderation when their record tells a different story.
Republicans already know how to campaign. What they must decide is to whom they are campaigning. If they continue to design their strategy around the most erratic slice of their coalition, they will continue to lose races they could otherwise win. Voters in the middle are listening, and they are waiting to be convinced.
Jordanne Kemper is vice president of Independent Women’s Voice.
