Inside Elections changed its rating for Tennessee‘s 7th Congressional District special election from “safe Republican” to “lean Republican,” as Democrats continue to pour money into the race.
Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are facing off to fill the seat of former Republican Tennessee Rep. Mark Green, who left Congress in June. Despite Green winning his general election with nearly 60% of the vote, and President Donald Trump winning there by over 22 points, the race has emerged as unusually close. A new Emerson College Polling-the Hill survey for the special election found that 48% of voters supported Epps and 46% supported Behn, a close result that triggered Inside Elections’s switch.
Not all election trackers are in agreement. The Cook Political Report stood by its “likely Republican” designation on Tuesday, arguing that the cumulative effect of increased national attention to the race would ultimately benefit Epps.
Republicans have been plagued by poor turnout in off-year elections, especially those in which Trump is not on the ballot. The 7th District’s special election is particularly dangerous for Republicans as it occurs shortly after Thanksgiving.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris threw her weight behind Behn, speaking at a rally on Tuesday. However, her active role may be counterproductive, given her poor performance in 2024.
Trump countered with a spirited endorsement of Epps, urging voters to back him in the polls.
HARRIS STUMPS FOR TENNESSEE DEMOCRAT IN COMPETITIVE SPECIAL ELECTION
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
The special election has been escalated to national proportions due to its potential to alter the Republicans’ slim House majority.
