“Soul and body shall we lay down for our liberty,” the Ukrainian anthem says. That line echoed through Kyiv in 2022 as Russia tried and failed to seize the capital in three days. In those first weeks of the war, enlistment queues formed outside recruitment centers, and territorial defense units ran out of spare weapons before they ran out of people.
Three years later, with hundreds of thousands of people dead and wounded, there is much less energy. But as pressure mounts for Ukraine to accept a peace deal apparently loaded with concessions, we must be wary of the future. If any peace agreement leaves space for a future Russian invasion, the Kremlin will likely take the deal. If it does not offer an opportunity for future conquest, Russia will likely walk. Ukraine thus faces a choice about what to do if Russia abandons talks.
“We missed the moment to make it popular to sign up for the army,” a Ukrainian intelligence officer said. “Now it has become a punishment.” The consequences of that failure are everywhere. Many young Ukrainian men avoid mobilization however they can. Some pay officials to remove their names from the draft lists, and others simply try to leave the country. The resentment between those who fight and those who do not simmers. Soldiers returning from the front talk openly about feeling far away from the countrymen they defend. You hear complaints from soldiers, volunteers, and ordinary citizens that the sons of parliamentarians, top officials, and the wealthy remain untouched by the draft.
Fatigue and exhaustion now define both the Ukrainian army and the society behind it. Front-line units are short of men; 7 million have left the country since the war began in February 2022. But even civilians away from the front feel the attrition in their lives. They miss the days of summer trips to the sea and late nights with friends. They resent that their routines have been overtaken by missiles, drones, and blackout nights.
This is not to say Ukraine’s civilian population is spoiled. They carry their own burdens. They run schools in basements, organize psychological support networks, raise money for drones, vehicles, and medical kits, and absorb wave after wave of displacement. Their resilience is real. Still, it cannot substitute for the fighting force the country still needs.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite pressure from international partners, has steadfastly refused to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 18. Officials argue that doing so would worsen the country’s already bad demographics. Others say it would be politically costly. Yet, whatever the reason, the hesitation means Ukraine does not have enough troops on the line, nor enough to rotate and rest those who are there. But with Russia still determined to dominate Ukraine and turn it into a puppet province, Ukraine must find a solution.
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When former Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion declared that “the whole nation is the army,” he was describing what is demanded to defend a small state under permanent threat. Ukraine has to move toward that model. This will include building national consensus around the need for long-term defense, expanding the military-industrial base, and strengthening the military through expanded mandatory service.
The alternative is Russian victory.
