Republicans could lose their decadeslong hold on a Mississippi Senate seat if state Sen. Chris McDaniel emerges as their standard-bearer in the special election to replace former U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran, a fresh public opinion poll warns.
The Mason-Dixon survey showed McDaniel and Democratic former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy neck and neck, with Espy leading McDaniel 42 percent to 40 percent, in a hypothetical matchup. That’s too close for comfort for Republicans in a solidly conservative Mississippi. In the same survey, Espy trailed Cindy Hyde-Smith, the other Republican running in the special election, 46 percent to 34 percent.
Hyde-Smith’s double-digit advantage highlights McDaniel’s potential vulnerability in the contest, should he emerge from the November open primary and represent the GOP in the expected runoff.
“Recently appointed U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith would be the best chance for the Republican Party to hold her Mississippi seat, rather than fellow GOP open primary contender Chris McDaniel,” the polling memo from Mason-Dixon said. The survey, conducted April 12–14, polled 625 registered voters via landline and cell phone. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
The big difference in Hyde-Smith’s performance against Espy compared to McDaniel comes courtesy of female voters. Women supported Hyde-Smith over Espy 44 percent to 31 percent. But they broke for Espy over McDaniel 46 percent to 36 percent.
Hyde-Smith, the elected state agriculture and commerce commissioner, was appointed by Republican Gov. Phil Bryant to succeed Cochran, a Republican who resigned at the end of March due to health issues. To hold the seat on a more permanent basis, through the end of the six-year term Cochran won in 2014, Hyde-Smith needs to win the special election.
Hyde-Smith has yet to receive President Trump’s official blessing, or that of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. But she is the party’s preferred choice versus McDaniel, a state senator who challenged Cochran in the 2014 Republican primary, losing narrowly in a runoff.
McDaniel is an insurgent conservative with a history of provocative rhetoric, and Republicans worry he could put the seat in jeopardy in a one-on-one race with Espy in a special election runoff that might see lower than usual turnout because it is scheduled to be held three weeks after the midterm elections in November.
McDaniel has been aggressively attempting to tie Hyde-Smith to the Republican establishment and position himself as the true Trump loyalist in the race. That could be difficult given his past criticism of Trump. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is blitzing Mississippi airwaves with ads to boost Hyde-Smith, proof, McDaniel says, that she is a tool of the party bosses in Washington.
“If they wanted a real conservative, they would be supporting my candidacy,” McDaniel said in a statement, responding to the U.S. Chamber advertising. “But the fact is, they want another yes-vote for Mitch McConnell.”
In other findings, Hyde-Smith’s favorability rating, at 29 percent positive to 7 percent unfavorable, outpaced McDaniel, who stood at 26 percent favorable and 25 percent unfavorable (Espy’s favorable-unfavorable rating was 28 percent to 17 percent.)
McDaniel’s high unfavorable rating could be a result of the carpet-bombing in negative ads he endured from Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. The incumbent is up for re-election this year and McDaniel was briefly challenging him in the June GOP primary before he shifted to the special election.
