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Since his real estate days, President Donald Trump has frequently used the motto “ahead of schedule, under budget” to signal competence and business acumen, especially when his claims are not based in reality.
It’s a personal mantra for the developer-turned-president, who measures success in terms of maximized profits and minimized costs. There is little room in his worldview for lofty ideals about the course of civilization, only swift, decisive action informed by the leverage dynamics of the moment. Ideologues on both sides have knocked him for being malleable, but I think most people take comfort in his transactional nature. He is a predictably self-interested man, a reliable swindler, and in this way more honest than politicians who merely feign virtue.
And with his relentless bluster comes a good deal of mirth. When Trump says something that sounds fishy, such as, “We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large, largest one ever, actually,” only his most deranged adversaries start Googling to see if they can catch him in a lie. Most people smirk and regard him as an eccentric uncle, holding judgment until the dust settles, and they can tally the score for themselves.
That’s because, at this moment in American history, only the scoreboard matters. The 21st century has been a story of American decline, marked by falling economic output, skyrocketing costs and debt, social decay, institutional distrust, lost wars, squandered international authority, and China’s unchecked rise.
In more sanguine and confident times, we might have preferred a leader driven by a fixed values system — or one who could send a thrill up our legs with an eloquent speech. But a nation on a losing streak does not want ideals or eloquence — it wants someone who can score points, and fast.
One year into his second term, and with the ghost of former President Joe Biden’s term quickly evaporating in the collective memory, it’s time to check the scoreboard to see whether Trump is truly delivering transactional wins on the issues that matter most.
The economy
On bringing down the cost of living, the top voter concern in the previous election, few people outside the White House believe Trump is “ahead of schedule, under budget.” Following a promising first few months that saw consumer prices drop, costs ticked up again, with inflation remaining elevated at around 3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Businesses paying higher import duties under Trump have begun passing costs on to consumers through higher prices. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since 2022.
Speaking of tariffs, Trump’s promised Rust Belt manufacturing revival, arguably the cornerstone of his “Golden Age” agenda, has also failed to materialize. Revitalizing manufacturing is frequently used to justify Trump’s tariffs and the higher prices and supply chain problems they cause. But they appear to have had the opposite effect. The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found 6,000 more manufacturing jobs disappeared in September, driving the total loss up to 58,000 since Trump’s April “Liberation Day” announcement of a sweeping round of new tariffs.
Perhaps most damning from an “under budget” perspective, government spending remains through the roof. Federal debt has continued its implacable rise in Trump’s second term, up $2.23 trillion and raising the total to approximately $38 trillion. The much-hyped Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, identified some efficiencies but failed to slash waste and bloat meaningfully. The government spending machine continues to splurge unabated.
Yet the administration can tout reasonably strong GDP growth. Following a rough first quarter, which saw the economy contract 0.5%, GDP grew at a rate of 3.8% in the second quarter. Estimates for Q3 are bullish on continued growth. Meanwhile, overall unemployment has risen only slightly since Trump took office.
Immigration
Trump’s quick closing of the southern border ranks among the most “ahead of schedule, under budget” accomplishments in recent memory. Today, the average of daily apprehensions on the southwest border is 95% lower than under the previous administration. And for seven consecutive months, Border Patrol has released zero illegal immigrants into the United States. By contrast, the Biden administration released millions.
While establishment Washington, including all Democrats and most Republicans, insisted that legislation was necessary to stem the tide of illegal border crossings under Biden, Trump proved that securing the border only required a new president. The stunning alacrity of the achievement may have actually worked against Trump politically. The country barely had a moment to celebrate it during the administration’s bustling early days. And now that the problem is decisively solved, Trump has been robbed of a potent issue.
On deportations, the picture is blurrier. The Department of Homeland Security reported that more than 2 million illegal immigrants have left since Trump took office, with 1.6 million self-deporting and 527,000 being deported by the agency. But whether those numbers amount to a “win” is a matter of perspective.
For the national conservative wing of the GOP, these data show that mass deportations have not ramped up nearly fast enough. Trump, who secured over $100 billion in investments for detentions and removals in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, promised to deport 1 million per year. But the infrastructure buildup has been slow going.
“All we’ve really seen is punchy tweets, cool video edits, but really no follow-through on any of the promises,” conservative commentator Savanah Hernandez said of Trump’s deportation pace last week, echoing others in the president’s base.
Meanwhile, approval of the mass deportation project is steadily declining among the general public. A growing majority of Americans believe that Trump’s deportation push has been far too aggressive. Public polling paints a consistent picture of Americans’ preferences: They want to see dangerous criminals apprehended and deported, but they do not approve of sweeping, indiscriminate raids targeting longtime noncriminal residents. The negative perception of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, exacerbated by juvenile and, at times, sinister DHS messaging, has caused public opinion to quell the anti-immigration sentiment pervasive late in Biden’s term. According to a recent Gallup poll, support for decreasing overall immigration fell from 33% in 2024 to 21% today, while support for maintaining overall levels of immigration rose to nearly 50% and support for increasing levels spiked to 28%.
In terms of pace and cost, both monetary and moral, Trump’s deportation policy is making few happy.
Foreign policy
While the full verdict on Trump’s foreign policy will only emerge in the years ahead, it’s already clear that his second term has racked up more tangible victories at lower financial and human cost than any administration this century.
In 11 short months, Trump severely degraded Iran’s nuclear weapons program, brokered a major ceasefire and hostage-release agreement between Israel and Gaza, pressured NATO allies to increase defense spending, and began shoring up the Western Hemisphere through aggressive cartel designations, naval pressure on Venezuela, and enhanced cooperation with Mexico to slash migration flows. And he accomplished all of this and more through diplomacy, led by his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and without sacrificing the life of a single American soldier.
Contrast this record with other recent administrations. Former President George W. Bush’s disastrous forever wars cost the nation trillions in treasure and the lives of thousands of soldiers. Former President Barack Obama’s Middle East follies, from his destabilizing Libya intervention to his failure to enforce his “red line” in Syria to his naive appeasement of Iran, diminished America, emboldened our adversaries, and made the world less stable. Meanwhile, his failed Afghanistan surge cost the nation hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands more lives. Biden’s disgraceful Afghanistan withdrawal cost 13 soldiers and shattered U.S. deterrence, sparking wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Trump’s bold and historically significant low-cost foreign policy victories in 2025 put him well “ahead of schedule and under budget” in comparison to his predecessors.
Ahead of schedule?
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One year in, Trump is decidedly ahead on the border and abroad. But he is lagging badly on notching wins within the American homeland, where economic pain from inflation, tariffs, and unchecked spending continues to sting. These failures could define his term and doom any Republican successor’s chances of building on his legacy in 2028 and beyond.
The bill for “Making America Great Again” is quickly coming due. This time next year, it will be clear whether the developer-president delivered the goods.
