On Wednesday, the U.S. Air Force intercepted two Russian Navy Ilyushin Il-38 aircraft flying 50 miles off the Alaskan coast. But don’t be alarmed — this is standard fare Russian chicanery.
First off, the aircraft in question weren’t a threat to Alaska. Il-38s are maritime patrol aircraft responsible for identifying ships and submarines, not striking mainland targets. And while these Il-38s were almost certainly the more advanced Il-38N variants of the airframe, they do not pose a significant threat to American security. They don’t even have air-to-air capabilities. The Il-38s speed performance and radar signatures also significantly undermine their surprise and strike capabilities. And considering that USAF 3rd Wing F-22s were deployed to intercept the Il-38s, the question of relative threat is not debatable here. The equation is unbalanced heavily in America’s favor, as it is even with Russian air superiority fighters.
The Russians know this. And they know that we know this. So, what was this little excursion about?
Well, this isn’t about Vladimir Putin preparing to start a war. Instead, it’s about Russia trying to get under American skin and identify any weaknesses that offer Russian opportunities. This carries special significance to the Russians in the Arctic Circle area north of Alaska, which holds vast energy reserves the Russians wish to stake claim over.
Moreover, as the coronavirus imposes readiness costs on elements of the U.S. military, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, Russia wants to see if the Pentagon has reduced its readiness in other critical priority areas. In this case, the air defense of the United States or Canada. As the commander of NORAD simply observed to Fox News, “They wanted to see if we are able to react.”
Finally, this is about playing to the domestic base. Putin views his ability to broadcast strength as a critical ingredient of his continued power. And whenever Putin can get his military close up to the U.S. military, his media propagandists are happy to advertise it.
In short, this is just another day in Alaskan airspace.
