Post-debate “snap” surveys aimed at determining a “winner” are in vogue given the proliferation of polling by media outlets this election cycle. But what do the results really mean for the November election? Pollster.com summarizes the five post-debate polls (and a focus group) from last Friday night and provides several points to consider in interpreting these numbers. Read the full analysis here. Two of the five surveys, Gallup/USA Today and CNN, gave the edge to Obama on the question of “who did a better job.” Two others, Los Angeles Times and Zogby reported much closer results in their surveys. The CBS/Knowledge Networks poll was a little unique, focusing only on “uncommitted” voters in its sample. It also gave the advantage to Obama on the “who performed better” question. (Democrat Stan Greenberg conducted a focus group with “undecided” voters in Missouri, and his results are also discussed in the Pollster.com post). The first question anyone should ask when reading these results: Does “who did a better job” contain any real electoral consequences? Mark Blumenthal sums it up well:
Post-debate polls often just reflect partisan predispositions and don’t mean the candidates changed a lot of minds. Blumenthal points out the configuration of the underlying survey samples shapes the results. A couple of the polls noted more self-identified Democrats than Republicans watched the debates, another likely producing a pro-Obama tilt. CNN notes this, for example, about its survey:
No doubt the media will report at least this many polls picking the “winner” of Thursday night’s vice presidential debate (and the two remaining presidential debates). Blumenthal raises some important caveats about how we interpret these results, especially when it comes to their ultimate electoral implications.
